Are we there yet?

Like antsy kids in the backseat of a station wagon, investors have all been asking the same question: When is the stock market - which has been hammered by subprime losses, housing woes and credit turmoil - going to hit bottom?

Here's the optimistic answer: Sit tight, we're almost there.

And the pessimistic answer? We'll get to that in a moment.

Predicting when markets have hit bottom is a perilous business at the best of times, best left to the folks in shiny office towers wielding complex forecasting models, all of which are basically useless.

And yet, anyone searching - desperately, perhaps - for signs the worst may be behind us didn't have to look far yesterday.

Consider Bank of Montreal, whose stock has been slaughtered by fears of credit-related losses. Yesterday, BMO kicked off fourth-quarter earnings season by topping expectations, triggering a relief rally that quickly spread to other banks. BMO jumped 4.6 per cent, Toronto-Dominion Bank 4.5 per cent, Bank of Nova Scotia 3 per cent.

The rebound in financials was a big reason why Canada's benchmark stock index finished with a 48-point gain, overcoming losses in energy, gold and base metals shares that kept it under water for much of the day.

On Wall Street, relief came in the form of Citigroup's $7.5-billion (U.S.) capital infusion from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which lifted the embattled bank's shares and sparked a broad-based rally that sent the Dow Jones industrial average up 215 points.

If this is indeed the bottom, it will mark the end of what may be the shortest-lived correction in stock market history. It was only Monday that the Dow and S&P 500 reached official correction status - defined as a drop of 10 per cent or more.

This is all terrific news. Unfortunately, it's also possible that we haven't hit bottom at all. For, along with the glad tidings from BMO and Citigroup's rescue deal, yesterday also brought fresh evidence the U.S. economy may be staring a recession in the face.

In a report that could foreshadow a grim holiday season, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell more than expected in November - dropping to 87.3 from a revised 95.2 in October - as Americans struggled with high energy costs and plunging home prices.

Worse, the expectations index, which measures consumer sentiment about future economic conditions, plunged to 68.7 from 80 - the lowest since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.

"If sustained at this level - sustained is the key word - consumers' spending will more or less grind to a halt, making it very difficult for the economy as a whole to avoid recession," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.

Other economic indicators are also flashing danger signs. The Baltic dry index, which measures shipping rates for commodities such as metals and grains, has tumbled about 10 per cent from its Nov. 13 peak, indicating that global demand for raw materials may be slowing.

If you want an even more obscure indicator, sales of U.S. motor homes are expected to fall 4.8 per cent next year, according to a University of Michigan forecast. That's worrisome, because over the past 30 years, sales of RVs - a highly discretionary purchase - have dropped every time the U.S. economy was about to slip into recession, according to Bloomberg.

So, instead of paying attention to the Dow or S&P/TSX, maybe we should all be watching shares of Winnebago Industries. They've tumbled 37 per cent this year, which suggests stock market investors could face more bumpy roads ahead.