Milton Friedman once told me, after returning my call collect, "Stock prices are rational in the long-term, but in the short-term, they're far from rational. They're full of noise."

Shawn Tully, Fortune Editor.

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Shawn is making the case here that for today's the stock market in general... bad times are ahead. Based on fundamentals, the market is overpriced - expected profits are just not there. This quote was to bolster his position that, even though stocks may go up in the near future, the trend will be DOWN. The key again is expected profit or return on investment...

So, naturally, I get nervous about my gold and silver (and nickel) stocks. But here is the difference (IMO). We are investing in a commodity that is going UP, mined by a particular company whose profits therefore will go UP. Explorer company profits come with finding what it is they are looking for. So, when they find it, profits skyrocket and thus stock price. NOT is a great example.

So the two are consistent. General market trend down, commodity market trend up. Profits for general stocks are declining, Profits for commodities (esp gold and silver) are climbing.

Even today I see that the general stock market is going UP UP UP while we drift. So, I would say this is more proof that we are not tied to the hip, general market with commodity stock market.

In summary, we can expect plenty of noise, we can expect the general market to show much more down trend, but the trend for our kind of stock investment, for NOT, is UP UP UP.

BK