"B-Lunist" - There is a chance I could win the powerball but it is not the same as the change I might not win. My guess is that the USPTO will NOT agree to another reexam.
I think we all understand your analogy but it probably is not the best one to use. Lottery chances vs. the odds of USPTO allowing another reexam.
A better analogy might be a horse race with 8 horses out the gate. The reexam would be horse number 7. Horse 7 is not the favorite but not a nag either. The race will have to be run.
We shall see within the next few months. Haven't we all said that before? :)