a few thoughts...
posted on
Apr 14, 2008 07:29AM
No matter how you spin it, the 10Q and shareholder letter collectively were ugly. Very unexpected and disappointing, and the market reaction cannot be faulted, IMHO. I had been very upbeat on this company but my faith has been severely shaken. The warning flags of mgt. resignations were there and I ignored them.
As bad as the ARS debacle is, there are plenty of much larger public companies with dedicated treasury functions that got burned, too. Until a few weeks/months ago the auction rate market had been very liquid and functional. As I understand it, while the underlying securities are very long-term, the frequent auctions (in which rates are reset) in effect converted them to short-term instruments. If the bidders leave, however, there is no market. I don't see a huge risk of losing this money, but it will take some time for recovery. Hopefully most or all of it will be.
The much bigger issue, IMHO, is the state of the MMP. I had originally been quite sure the J3 settlements were deferred or royalty-bearing, but in view of RG's cryptic statement in the letter, and Brian's conclusion, I am not sure. It is a shame shareholders have to guess about such a fundamental issue, though I understand the need to be circumspect in order to bolster negotiating positions with other licensees.
From where I sit, it appears that something adverse to our position in the Texas litigation may have occurred, and the assumption that we were in the position of strength may not have been accurate. At any rate, we are left with a big cloud over the MMP. I certainly hope that over the next few days more clarity to these issues is provided.
My life is "exciting" enough without this drama, and I have trimmed my position, but hold most of what I owned before Apr. 9. I would be prepared to buy those shares back if the shroud of mystery is lifted and the MMP is revalidated. GLTAL.