Cohen 2008 Earnings Estimates $0.09/shr
posted on
Apr 02, 2008 09:52AM
Based on thier update at the time of the settlement announcement, Cohen's OPTIMISTIC outltook was for 0.09 EPS for all of Fiscal Year 2008. That would equate to a $35.2M earnings for the year. Combining Q1 & Q2, PTSC has already reported a net income of $454,000 (income after taxes and all other expenses). So to meet the optimistic outlook of Cohen, they need to report a net income of $34.75M over the next two quarters.
To find out what that means in terms of MMP revenues from PDS, we have to add in taxes and G&A expenses of PTSC. To net out $34.75M, assuming a tax rate of 35%, PTSC would have to get an additional $53.46M in gross revenue over tne next two quarters. ($53.46M-$18.71M(that's 35% of 53.46)). Assume that aside from the MMP Income generated from PDS, PTSC will continue to run a deficit of approximately $1.8M per quarter (that's the average of the last 4 quarters). So from that $53.46, we can add $3.6M that PTSC's average quarterly losses offset (ie PTSC wouldn't be paying taxes on that income), so in effect, to get to the .09 EPS estimate that Cohen shows in it's optimistic case, PTSC would need about $57M in income from PDS.
Since PTSC gets half of the PDS revenues AFTER expenses, PDS needs to make twice $57M PLUS expenses, or $114M plus expenses. If the previous quarter is any indication, legal and other licensing expenses could b high, so estimate a hopefully worse case scenario of $20M in expenses over Q3 & Q4. So over the last and the current quarters, PDS will need to make approximately $134M in License Fee Revenue in order for the Cohen OPTIMISTIC estimate of $0.09 per share.
Now, PTSC touted the Cohen report as important. From that perspective, Cohen's report might be looked at as the base line for market expectations. With that in mind, I think it can be argued that to surpass the market's expecations, MMP Licensing efforts will need to surpass the $134M needed over Q3 & Q4 to meet these optimistic outlook levels that Cohen states.
I don't know how well respected or well read Cohen's stuff is. But if PTSC's 10q were to show PDS revenues of over $130M JUST FOR Q3, which some here think is very possible, then it might be a HUGE upside surprise from the market's perspective. Looking at Cohen's price targets at high growth and optimistic perspective, they show a $2.31/shr price as the highside.
It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to the numbers especially if the numbers meet or exceed any of Cohen's scenarios. If they do in fact show PDS revenues of over $130M for Q3, I for one expect a pretty significant impact to the shareprice from that alone, regardless of M&A activity, barring any negative news that might offset the revenue numbers. While I hate to wish time away, as it is more precious than anything money can provide, I sure can't wait to see what the PDS gross revenues are and what the net of those to PTSC prove to be.