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Message: Projections from 3/11/06 where are we now?

Projections from 3/11/06 where are we now?

posted on Nov 14, 2007 07:29AM
I came across this post on Nanalyze.com.  Veteran poster, Incite, had this to say back on 3/11/06.  That was then, how would it read now?  I’m not sure if incite is also a poster on Agoracom.  Regardless, I defer to those who are the analysts.  By the way…great post Deb…I like the way you think!  

System manufactures Hewlett Packard, Casio and Fujitsu along with chip manufactures Intel and AMD*, have all recognized and voluntarily licensed PTSC's jointly owned MMP Portfolio of microprocessor design patents; for what I estimate to date, to be more than $80M.

PTSC has now elected to pay approx. $22M in direct cash dividends from their share of these licensing distributions with the announcement of the latest .04 cents per share dividend, coming just yesterday for shareholders of record on
March 31, 2006. This $80M came from just five companies, who received "deep discounts" for being among the first in their sectors to sign. You don't have to be a mathematician to figure out what lies ahead with more than 150 additional companies on notice of which dozens are actively seeking licensing arrangements.

Approx. $50M of the MMP Portfolio revenues has come in just the last six weeks.

IMO: Each corresponding licensing contract will be made at an accelerated rate above the last with each exponentially increasing in value. However, to keep projections grounded lets just say the frequency and value of future contracts remain the same. $50M in 6 weeks from 3 companies $50M / 6 = $8.33M per week. $8.33M X 52 = $433M in annual revenue going forward. $433M / 2 (PTSC's share) = $216M from approx 26 companies, conservatively speaking. That would amount to one company signing every two weeks. Now should PTSC elect to distribute just half of these revenues as dividends; it would amount to more than .57 cents per share. Again, conservatively speaking on many levels. With NO debt and $216M in revenue, how could one interpret PTSC's value going forward.?

In comparison to some of the companies in the lucrative business of IP licensing; RAMBUS INC (NasdaqNM:RMBS) has had $157M in revenue for the trailing twelve months while carrying $160M in debt., yet RMBS market cap tops $3.16B, more than six times that of PTSC who has no debt. I believe at some point as more contracts roll in and the consequent revenue is recognized; PTSC's M/C will rival and surpass that of RMBS, even if PTSC realized just half of the above projections along with the recent contracts, (that would be approx. one contract a month).

To quantify in terms of price per share, $3.16B / 304M shares outstanding for PTSC = $10.40 PPS and up. Seeing is believing. Contracts mean revenues, and big revenues mean solid fundamentals creating an enormously undervalued property and colossal opportunity.

OK, so that is just one company.

Do you have any others?

I'm glad you asked.

How about ARM HLDGS ADS (NasdaqNM:ARMHY) although their revenues are $403M ttm., they are not exclusive to IP licensing so their profit margin is much lower. However, this company is very healthy with $279M in cash, no dept. and unlike RMBS who cannot afford to pay a dividend, has a forward annual dividend rate of .04 cents. (PTSC has annouced .06 cents in dividends in just the last month) ARMHY has a considerably higher amount of shares outstanding (477M O/S) than PTSC (304M O/S) So, again in comparison to PTSC in quantifying in terms of PPS. ARMHY M/C is $3.29B divided by PTSC O/S of 304M = $10.82 PPS. This, of course is all relative and contingent upon PTSC securing licensing contracts. Note: All this number crunching has been calculated without the influence of ongoing royalties. Incidentally, if RMBS and ARMHY have not already been notified of infringement of the MMP Portfolio, then they most certainly will be on the next list of 150 companies to be notified. I'm not saying that PTSC should be worth $10.00+ right now. What I am saying is that it could be in very short order and will be in due time. Or on the other hand they could license half the 150 notified companies inside of two or three months and all figures are out the window. In which case you are quite welcome to wear out a truck load of #2 pencils trying to figure out what value PTSC is then. Just my .o2 cents, or should I say .o6... cents.

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