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Message: Reality is $5B means $20M per license AVERAGE

Reality is $5B means $20M per license AVERAGE

posted on Nov 02, 2007 11:40AM

To expect that PTSC would get $5B for MMP is a bit out there, even if it happens after successful litigation/settlement.  The reality is $5B divided by the current 480 potential licensees is an AVERAGE $10.4M per license (PTSC's share).  That means the AVERAGE license has to be $20M (TPL & PTSC's shares combined) just to justify that the MMP is worth $5B to PTSC over time.  Then to expect that someone would come up with $5B upfront to buy MMP from PTSC just to turn around and have to do all the work to collect $5B ain't going to happen in my opinion.

I question whether it's realistic that $20M per license AVERAGE is anywhere near acheivable.  The biggest license to date has been Fujitsu at approx $33M (w/o looking it up).  Granted there are bigger fish than Fujitsu yet to fry, but on AVERAGE, it would take a lot of really BIG numbers to create an AVERAGE deal value of $20M.  And then, who in their right mind would buy a business proposition that's worth $5B POTENTIALLY, and pay $5B for it NOW.  If we can find that guy, make that deal, but it won't happen now or later, in my opinion.  My $2B number was a bit tongue in cheek as I can't see anyone paying $2B now for a still to be proven MMP portfolio, but it would be more realistic that someone would pay $2B for a potential $5B future worth than it is to think $5B is acheivable.  Neither will happen in my opinion.  If anything happens, I think PTSC would sell MMP soon for at best $500M, OR they would fight the battle, and take the subsequent license revs to fund ongoing M&A activities.

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