Re: Sedley
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 10, 2007 07:25AM
"The question is why didn't Pohl explain this to us?"
It occurs to me on refection that perhaps Pohl thought the explanation was so friggin' obvious that no explanation from him was necessary! And perhaps his true meaning behind the "perplexing" comment was that he was perplexed that shareholders were too dim to figure it out for themselves. Heck, I've figured it out I think, and I KNOW nuttin' for crying out loud!
And the only thing I find "perplexing" about this issue is how it just keeps surfacing, over and over and over and over again. You can blame S&L for selling to convert to satisfy the need to eliminate warrants in a controlled fashion for the benefit of ALL, and you can blame the flippers/traders for selling into any run to satisfy their own personal insatiable GREED.
Here's a repost of my (repeated) post on this subject from Saturday 7/7/07:
I remain convinced that the answer to your concerns is one that has been addressed many, many times. It has to do with S&L selling shares on the open market to enable the conversion of vested outstanding warrants, and in a controlled fashion such that their "dumping" of shares has minimal impact on the share price (i.e., it doesn't drop like a rock). There is evidence to support this proposition, that being past reporting where it is evident that S&L's available warrants are decreasing in number, significantly. There have also been occasions where their actual share count has decreased, or is less than the optimal amount possible (to stay under 10% of OS). I strongly suspect that such occasions are merely a "snapshoot in time" where share count has reduced, but warrants have not yet been converted to "backfill" to the optimal amount. I suspect that this is because the warrants are converted in relatively large blocks (e.g., 5M at a time), as opposed to piecemeal (e.g., 5K at a time), as a matter of "administrative convenience" (i.e., processing one piece of paper versus 1,000 pieces of paper to achieve the same objective). The outstanding warrants held by S&L are viewed very negatively by astute investors. I have personally seen this, as there have been occasions where I have recommended PTSC to friends who invest heavily in the market. The next time I see them (or shortly thereafter), I ask whether they have taken the plunge. On multiple occasions the answer was a resounding "No", and when I asked why, the response was "they've got a ton of outstanding warrants hanging out there". One interesting point here is that one of the wealthiest of these folks has since taken the plunge. Why? He says because he kept tabs on PTSC (and I believe he may actually have been looking out for little ole me, knowing I'm virtually "all in"), and noted the major reduction in outstanding warrants over 2 reporting periods after his initial review. What does this tell you? Contrast the above with other possible explanations. One obvious one is flippers and traders. Some visit us here, revealing this strategy, yet pointing their wicked fingers at everyone but themselves for the trading pattern, with news, that we've consistently seen. Interestingly, IMO, their scheme would NOT work with such reliability if it were not for the known actions of S&L. And their constant complaining about it actually reinforces the reliability of their scheme, by implanting the thought that, with news, we'll go up alittle and then head down. Exactly what they want to see happen to enable their strategy to work. Unfortunately, there is nothing that can be done about this. The only thing Longs can look forward to is the day the S&L have completed their action and the flippers and traders are caught with their pants around their ankles, having sold at a perceived peek on news, only to watch us run. But note that the self-professed flippers and traders have said that they always hold a core position. Why? Because they KNOW that the day when S&L is done will come, so they'll only get caught with their barn door open. Shorts? This doesn't appear to be in play, as reported short positions are consistently minimal. MMs? Possibly. They control the game to a large extent. But IMO they too will limit their exposure and probably don't "play" to the extent some suspect. They are in essentially the same boat as flipper/traders. I also believe that there are much better candidates for their games than PTSC. I also believe that they play in a day-to-day or minute-to-minute game, not a long term game, because a long term game ties up their resources preventing more lucrative plays in the day-to-day or minute-to-minute games they specialize in. Some say PTSC itself is making this trading pattern happen. Since their stated policy is to buy shares, not sell them, I cannot see how this could be. So, IMO, the PR we should most anxiously anticipate is the one that says "S&L has converted all (vested) warrants". This will mark the end of this drag on any run on news, and will also mark an end to such vigor in the play of flippers/traders. And will also mark the day when astute investors will step forward. This will also, IMO, mark the day when PTSC will prod their marketing effort with the "blitz". This is because doing so while the warrants loom heavily would be a waste and not yield the desired affect. The market, and even Longs, would scream "foul" as PTSC would appear to be a pure pump and dump scheme. And it would be. But when the warrants are gone..... All JMHO, and things I think I KNOW! Yet another novel! SGE |