Re: At What Point will it be enough for SL to free the SP Value? - PTSC4me
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 13, 2007 10:08AM
Um, I think it is an absolute that "they need to dump shares to convert more warrants", assuming S&L see the benefit to their overall investment in doing so. The only question is whether they can see the benefit.
I would argue that IF they don't see the benefit, then they (here assuming they wield such influence) would let the PPS rise significantly - even pay their own money to promote PTSC - to derive a near term benefit, leaving the long term benefit to "fate". But note that this isn't happening. Not that it proves anything, but it does serve as "evidence" in a logical, though non-conclusive, view.
The only other variable I see in this discussion is whether there are THAT many retail investors or MMs sitting there, watching for any good news, so they can immediately dump shares for a measely few pennies potential profit/share. To me, this defies logic. And in my (possible very naive) thinking, I just can't imagine that anyone close to this stock would act in this fashion. I seems that they'd at least hold out long enough for the run to get to a reasonable finish line before selling large quantities. But large sales hit almost instantly, then the sells seem to cause a slow rise through the selling resistance, only to be overwhelmed by sell orders stunting the move up. It just looks like a purposeful action to dump into large volume, i.e., the objective not really to maximize instant profit, but to simply unload without causing too much damage to the PPS, IMO. Ergo, S&L....
However, there is the possibility of the MMs causing all of this. They could short into the volume, but, again, it seems they'd let'er fly more before taking such action in order to maximize their instant profit. IMO, the swing on news (e.g., NEC) would be much more dramatic if this were the true scenario (after all, the MMs basically control the bid/ask).
So I keep veering back to the "S&L dumping ASAP without killing the PPS" scenario.
The one thing that kills my argument in favor of this scenario is that, if dumping shares to enable conversion of warrants is the true S&L objective, why don't they/haven't they just done it the simple way. That would be to approach PTSC and say "let's make a deal", then pick door #1 - Pay off for retirement of all outstanding warrants, with a premium tacked on (allowing more instant profit than using the open market to sell shares to enable conversion). Maybe this is their desire, but PTSC doesn't currently have the funds to do this. The NEC money should do it....and that's why I told Moxa yesterday to hold off a couple/few weeks before freaking out (not that he was), to give this possibility a chance of coming to fruition. If it doesn't, I'll again be totally perplexed (even more perplexed? LOL).
Sorry for yet another novel. And, as usual, I KNOW nuttin'!
SGE