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Message: Re: Drebbin....

Feb 03, 2007 06:19AM

Feb 03, 2007 08:19AM

Feb 03, 2007 08:46AM
I have read the Dutton Report... as has everyone here.. 

http://www.jmdutton.com/research/ptsc/reports/ptsc_report_112706.pdf

Assumptions:

• Based on the fact that Phoenix Digital has notified 300 manufacturers of microprocessors, we assume arrangements are reached with two-thirds of these to arrive at a possible 200 manufacturers being granted licenses for the MMP portfolio at some point in the coming years.

• The first marquee manufacturers of microprocessors that were granted licenses paid a total of $121.0 million in one-time license fees, or an average of $11.0 million per license.

• Since the initial 11 were the top manufacturers of microprocessors, future licensees would pay at least 10% higher

license fee on average or $12.1 million per license.

• Phoenix Digital expense are estimated at 10%, bringing the gross fee before distribution to Patriot and TPL down to approximately $10.9 million

• Patriot Scientific’s 50% share of this $10.9 million would be approximately $5.5 million.

• Future fees from 200 microprocessor manufacturers over the 9-year period before the licenses expire would be approximately $1.1 billion.

• Patriot’s internal expense over the 9-year period is estimated at approximately $90.0 million.

• Net operating income before taxes is estimated at approximately $999.0 million

• Net after taxes of 40% is estimated at approximately $ 599.4 million.

• Based on 400,000,000 shares outstanding Net EPS is estimated at $1.50

• Applying a 25% discount for the 9-year period, the net valuation per share is $1.12.

Based on these assumptions, the possible one-time license fees that would come to Patriot Scientific over a 9-year period, after Phoenix Digital expenses and the 50% payout, Patriot Scientific expenses and taxes would be approximately $599.4 million. Applying a 25% discount, to reflect the 9-year time frame before the patents expire, current valuation would work out to be approximately $1.12 per share.

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-Those notified of possibe infringement is now closer to 400-500, which I would guess will be addressed in Duttons next quarterly report. 

Not quite 5 deals in 8 yrs... 
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