Valuation
posted on
Oct 14, 2006 02:20PM
Like many, I am disappointed with what appears to be the number for the licenses since May 31st. Valuation of a stock is mostly about the future, informed by the past. For larger companies with a track record, the future is more likely to be strongly related to the past, or at least a trend can be predicted. Price earnings ratios is one measure of what the market thinks of the future of a stock and its potential growth. Here are the PEs of four tech stocks at the moment: GOOG 62, INTC 19, QCOM 28, RIMM 53. What PE should PTSC have? It is difficult to judge. A big payoff on the pending suit is nearly impossible to predict. However, PTSC just reported earnings per share of .09. A PE of 10 would put it at $.90. It that too high, or too low? If over the next few years PTSC can have earnings from Phoenix Digital grow each year (for example, a PTSC share of $40-$45 million or more per year), their earnings could go up a penny or two each year from $.09, even with outstanding shares approaching 400 million (e.g., $40 million income/400 million shares = $10 per share). This would be possible with 20 companies a year averaging a license of about $4.5-$5 million each, divided roughly in half for PTSC. Any big catch could add significantly. With earning of $.10 per share and a PE of 15, the stock would trade around $1.50 per share. With a little better results and a couple of big hits, $2 to $3 per share could be possible. Only time will tell whether TPL Group can continue to get multiple licenses with some growth in the numbers. A big settlement or win against Fujitsu et al. would boost the prices considerably. In the short run, who knows what the reaction may be. PTSC may go down on Monday and could stay down until additional announcements and at least some clarification on the $33 million referenced in the 10-K. Even if PTSC share of that is roughly 40% after expenses and the TLP share, PTSC has over $16 million in about 4 months of the new fiscal year. Multiply times 3 to annualize and PTSC would have nearly $40 million for the new year. This could be higher or lower. If TPL really can start to get more per license, the year could be pretty good without any grand slams.