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Message: Near term affect of share buy-back

Near term affect of share buy-back

posted on Oct 10, 2006 05:48PM
I feel compelled to reiterate my thoughts of the potential PTSC share buy-back scenario. Several assumptions are involved, but all reasonable assumptions IMO. I'll use rough, round numbers to describe the scenario. Assumptions for ease of discussion: 1) PTSC has been using all funds available towards share buy-back. Not 10%, not 50%, but 100%. Reasonable? It's what I and I suspect most of US have been doing, so why not PTSC? They have 20-20 realtime view, and what better investment for the recent income? 2) They've brought in a minimum of $20M over the past several months (since the buy-back program was announced). This would be the result of 7 new licensees (5 in Q1, and 2 in Q2), and I believe a very conservative number. 3) They bought shares at an average PPS of $1.00. 4) They only used the hard dollars available (i.e., they used only the $20M). Based on these simplistic assumptions, they could have bought 20M shares. This IMO could have been easily done over several months of varying trading volume, within regulatory constraints. They're doing this (as would we) in anticipation of the market reaction to THE NUMBERS (10K and 10Q). Staying very conservative, let's say PTSC goes up to a SUSTAINED $1.50 PPS. Do the figurin' and PTSC just made $10M ROI. And I believe that this new wealth, being in the form of stock held, would not be taxable unless sold. So $10M....$10M! I could be totally off base, but this approach/use of the money is what I would do. Simplistic numbers, but toy around with 'em and it still looks good (even with a pessimistic view). Again, it would be a nice compounding effect on the value of our investment. Having thought this through, I'm almost as interested in the share counts to be reported than I am in the licensing revenue! As ALWAYS, I KNOW nuttin'! SGE
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