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Message: RE: valuation....limeric...

RE: valuation....limeric...

posted on Jul 01, 2006 09:06AM
I agree with pretty much all you say, with one possible exception. You suggest that ``I think they only have to file with the SEC if their total position changes as an insider but I may be wrong. Today transparency is key to any insider and their dealings with the SEC. Some can chime in if they believe otherwise``.

I have a contrary opinion based purely on my ``logic``. That is that I don`t think anyone (S, L, or PTSC - and it would have to be PTSC as the reporting entity) would have to file anything FURTHER if only to advise that S or L had to liquidate a portion of their share count to remain in compliance with their prohibition from owning more than 9.99% per the agreement ALREADY FILED. The key is the percentage of ownership, not the share count; as you`ll recall the agreement did not cite share counts, but only the limit percentage.

So what I`m saying is that assuming S&L have to reduce their holdings (share count) due to PTSC buying back shares, it would seem rather pointless for PTSC (the reporting entity) to do a filing merely to say that S&L have acted to remain in compliance with the 9.99% deal. The act is expected based on the filing of the agreement.

Thus, this potential ``clue`` that PTSC is in fact buying back shares probably, IMO, will not surface. Also, IMO, I seriously doubt that PTSC has initiated their buy-back plan as yet or, if they have, only to a very limited degree. I only say this because they didn`t have much money left after the last divy, and they may not have actually received a distribution from TPL resulting from the past 4 settlements (since the divy).

But it`s probably a very safe bet that they will initiate the buy-back as soon as those monies roll in, and I believe that will create a PPS ``floor``, e.g., PTSC places a limit buy order, GTC NOT AON, for say 5M shares at a buck, thereby locking in a floor of a buck/share till their order is filled. The BIG added benefit I perceive is that this act will cut the shorts off at their knees (making then short in another way LOL), as selling short at $1.02 won`t get them much. So then what? Those who would short would let the PPS rise to give them the ``room`` to turn a tiddy profit. Then PTSC could raise the ante, pop up their bid, and create a new floor. Could be a nice ``ratcheting`` effect....all legit.

All this is just my humble opinion and, as you probably KNOW, I KNOW nuttin`!

SGE

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