RE: So what is it...down to .10 cents again
posted on
May 18, 2006 07:15AM
Psychologically, Pohl has to achieve a balance here - He wants his number, but he doesn`t want to send away TOO many of his shareholders - makes the company look flakey and unstable, continuing to attract only the short-term, conditioned to flip out at a certain point in the run. Come to think of it, maybe that`s still what he wants in the short-term, assuming he wants an agressive plan.
I`m sure he has a percentage number in his head of:
1) where he wants to start
2) How he wants to start
3) what pace he wants in play once started
4) The target # of o/s shares he wants to achieve
Thoughts (in order)
1) Where - Make your first buyback as significant as possible. If you really want to achieve NAS or AMEX listing, you commit to the SP goal. He wants a good start out of the gate (don`t we all?)
I`m sure he ``knows`` how much he has to work with (what`s in the pipe).
Let`s pull a number out, say he has $20M coming, maybe $12-15M available to spend on this....at .62/sh, does a buyback of 24m shares seem reasonable/realistic?
2) How - There are no guarantees SP and AVAILABLE revenue will intersect when he`s ready to pull the trigger. In come investment bankers to supply the bridge. I suspect all he needs to do is show where the expected revenue is in the pipe and a deal is cut.
3) Pace - This is where being a fly on the wall would be a real neat thing. I don`t think he can call the immedate pace he`d like to set until we jet the J3 issue resolved. A time crimp would appear if the J3 fight it. That would drag things out. I don`t even want to venture a guess on how long it would take, worst case.
4) Target - This is where someone more savvy should speak up - IPO`s start out of the block with 12-15M shares. That`s not a realistic end point for this company. Again, we don`t know their goal, beyng the assumption of them wanting to migrate to a different exchange.
An oversimplification? Heck, it`s all open for discussion
I just wish I saw this deceleration coming a month ago.
Regards