RE: I`ve never known an attorney that knew how to fish - Union Jack
posted on
May 09, 2006 12:10PM
You say:
``The dozens of infringers lining up to sign discounted license agreements didn`t materialize.
Hence our low share price.``
Some of us are of the opinion that those dozens didn`t materialize for a reason. Think of what has changed (the only significant thing, really) since that statement by TPL was made. Yup, the Marshall decision. I suspect, with that decision in hand, the ``early discounts`` scenario may have evaporated to some degree (i.e., an early discount is probably still in the offing, but the discounted price is much higher than before this ruling). TPL may have raised the ante considerably for those dozens of infringers. Situation changed, likely (obviously?) in our favor. As I opined in an earlier post, a precedent may have been set where all future MMP litigation will be conducted in the Marshall Court. No easy ``outs`` for the infringers. They are now in a position of having to decide whether to pay more than recently planned/expected to settle, or wait and possibly be crushed IF we win against the J3 (with an improved probability of the win). Tough decision.... (I sure wouldn`t want to be the one making it - potential career distroyer on a gamble either way).
You say:
``The pending lawsuit , against the J3, has now set a precedent other companies have no need to rush to TPL for agreements,They can now wait for an outcome, which may now be a year away.
Hence our low share price.``
That probably is the perception of many investors. But as suggested in my above response, the rush may still be on but at a much higher price than previous. Time lag for a lot of hand-wringing. I envision high level meetings at infringer sites, weighing the pros and cons of their alternative actions on multiple aspects of their businesses. Decisions influenced by immediate impact on their bottom line if they settle, their shareholder reaction, impact on their stock price, impact if their competitors get there first and ultimately undercut their product price, production cost variances if royalties come into play (and royalties are probably on the table, at least initially), etc. Don`t settle? Status quo till a verdict in Marshall, then what if TPL wins? Resign? Engineers have any potential work-arounds? How much will that cost, and when will it be available? You get the picture.... No longer a ``nuisance`` cost. Now they`re probably looking at everything much more closely before they elect to cough heavily.
So with this line of thinking, our shareholder gamble here is just that much more interesting. Watch the slow bleeding of our PPS eroding any profits made, or sell with the thought of maybe jumping back in when something happens (at a premium). But IF my thoughts as to what may be going on are correct, those willing to suffer the current bleed-out might just be rewarded in a much bigger way than previously thought. I`m counting on the latter....
But I KNOW nuttin`!
SGE