Re: Share Prices
posted on
Aug 12, 2008 05:38AM
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Fish -
I see that both you and Cal are on board with a $5 per share forecast. That is a really big number. I'm far more conservative (though many mught say that my forecast is pie in the sky). Let me show you my thinking......
10 wells (50% hits on drilling is good)@ 500/bpd = 5000/bpd X$80/b (after royalties and expenses) = $400,000/day.
Let's assume that the NG revenue is equivalent to the oil($400,000/day) so that that makes a total revenue stream of $800,000.
$800,000 X 330 (days of production with down time) = $264,000,000 per year.
MEO's share (35%) = $92,400,000 of earnings per year.
At a PE of 5 ($462,000,000) with get a SP of $2.31 (462,000,000 divided by 200,000,000 shares)
So, if you guys are getting to $5.00 you must believe that one of these factors is doubled (# wells producing, output per day, etc.) Would either of you mind sharing your math and your logic with me (because I love this stuff)?
- Panamax