MAI and Hoschild
posted on
Jul 15, 2009 06:05PM
Formerly - Minera Andes Inc
GGray:
"If this is true...." Let's not call it "true". Let's call it my perception of the truth. If I'd been to SJ, if I knew Nestor Kirchner personally, if I really knew the mining business, if I knew what Eddie H is really thinking.....that's a lot of ifs. I don't know anything you don't know, if you've done your homework. It's just my take. Maybe I'm being too gloomy. I'm not in a verypositive frame of mind right now because I think America is going off the rails at 100 mph.
It might be that I've just gotten married to the trade, David. I've been holding and trading MAI and MNEAF for years, since before they had anything. But as a trader, I'm aware that there are no safe trades worth making. The markets always hold risk. If you don't want risk, buy bonds: US 30 year Treasurys with a 4% yield and a near-certainty of getting paid back in used toilet paper. No risk there. You're absolutely certain to lose your money, because the USD is absolutely certain to disintegrate before 30 years are up.
My feeling is that both risk and reward have been increasing in MAI over the past couple of years. A first-class resource has developed, maybe two counting LA, but at the same time the world gets more dangerous. Since summer of 2007 I have moved progressively more capital out of stocks, including MAI, and into physical metal. I'm still holding MAI and evaluating the risk/reward in real time. It's in flux.
I think Rob McEwen has already drastically altered the outlook for MAI with his money and leadership, but that's not the same as saying he can or will change the fundamental picture. HOC has a majority stake and is the mine operator.
That's where the leverage lies. If RM can steer MAI to new resources that are beyond the reach of the Hockers, then he will have opened up a new set of possibilities. Until then, we're married to the Corleones. So to speak.