I think a 30% premium ABOVE the buyout price might be too LOW!

With a short position that massive, it could get goofy. Remember, the naked shorts have to buy back shares that technically don't exist post-merger to entice the longs to part with their shares. This requires SUBSTANTIALLY higher prices. If the buyout price is $15, $19.50 is still cheap in my mind, given the underlying conditions.

Just as the shares have been held down artificially by a paper manipulation, they explosion to the upside should be beyond reasonable expectations.

Or maybe I'm just a raging bull. I bought some Hecla partly just from the big short position in that stock. If they started paying a dividend, it could get ugly for the shorts there too.