Welcome To The Metanor Resources HUB On AGORACOM

Metanor (MTO-V) is a new Canadian Gold Producer located in Quebec. It reached commercial production on December 1, 2013 and will produce 50,000 oz in calender 2014 with a present all-in cash cost of $1,018US.

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Message: Value estimate by Swannmex

Value estimate by Swannmex

posted on Apr 27, 2008 05:31AM

Here is an estimate of the value of MTO by a very knowledgable poster by the name of Swannmex on SH:

"The question was MTO's valuation at 25,000 ounces gold production. Being more or less conservative let's use $350.00usd cash cost and $$850.00usd gold price we get free cash flow of $12,500,000.00usd. If we take the fully diluted share count at 86.6 million ( not sure that covers all the stock options, I will find out , either way most of the options will not be exercised for a long while and a bunch of the warrants go for 5 years) I get about $.14cdn cash flow per share so on the low side 10 X CF gives us $1.40cdn and on the high side 15 X CF gives us $2.12cdn.

Next year with the mill up to 1200 ton/day using the same $850.00 gold and $350.00 cash costs we get 75,000 oz. au. They are saying ( and better to set the bar low ) 65,000 oz. in 2009. So at those prices for cash cost and gold we get using the 65,000 oz. au. production $32,500,000.00 free cash flow or $.38cdn free cash flow per share. Using a 10 X CF multiple I get a $3.75cdn per share at 15 X CF I get $5.60cdn per share.

I, like I expect most of us, actually expect a gold price over $1,000.00usd in 2009 so there is some pretty good upside to those nunbers if we get a higher gold price. If we see much higher gold prices I expect good producers in safe countries to sell at more than 15 X CF but let's not get the horse in front of the cart.

If gold does go lower, MTO will still be very profitable. Using $700.00usd gold and 65,000 oz. in 2009 I still get $22,750,000.00 free cash flow and using a low 7.5 X CF the share price should be almost double where it is now.

Growth of production is a wonderful thing and the Barry pit is already to the point where it can provide several years of mill feed. During this time the mill can be expanded to 1200 ton per day and then Bachelor Lake underground can be developed, hopefully all out of cash flow. The set up could not be better.

Bottom line is with gold at these prices ( if they can execute and I know management well and believe they can ) MTO is selling at less than 3 X 2009 free cash flow and IMHO, that is very cheap.

I own a bunch of shares and warrants from both the 2006 financings. I am going to hang around for a couple of years at least and see if they can execute the plan. So far they have delivered very well.

Also we may get a potential upside boost as the drilling at Barry unfolds. Barry is possibly a much bigger deposit than anyone originally dreamed. Barry alone could make Metanor a multi-bagger if the deposit proves up to be what now looks possible.

Lots of news coming over the next several months.

With Dynamic PM fund having bought 10,800,000 shares and with Jay Taylor on board, the stock is now getting good sponsorship and strong hands shareholders. Hopefully we will get some analyst coverage of Metanor in the next few months.

I personally could not be happier with the job management has done. The table is set for this to really work out well and the story is finally getting some attention. Of course there will be ups and downs with this emotional/irrational market but with patience MTO has a real good shot at being a homerun.

Good luck to all of us."
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