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Message: Re: Technical view of Mannkind
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May 22, 2013 01:29PM
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May 22, 2013 01:42PM

Trend, this run had to (obviously, manner of speaking, almost nothing "has to" anything) come to an end, and your technical indicators may well have identified that end. Those trend lines are important, I think, not so much because they necessarily indicate something fundamental happening, but because there's a heck of a lot of guys like Trend out there who do the same type of thing, and with MNKD, it has attracted a whole lotta spec players in the last couple of months, and the majority of those types use technical analysis.

Obviously, I'd love to see the gains continue, but, looking at things a bit more "realistically," I would gladly settle for some sideways or gradual downward movement (to, say $6) going into announcement of results in mid August. Frankly, it's all so volatile, that kind of move could happen in a day or two, much less a couple of months. While waiting for a pullback may offer an opportunity to buy more, there might also be a chance to sell and then buy back, and, after reloading, sell a portion before the announcement (could someone ask Al to give us a couple of days heads up for that - Doc, you have a good relationship with him!).

If one is very, very confident that the announcement will be good, then I guess I would hold through the announcement, and if it's good, I would set a price at which I'd sell a part, to ensure against financial ruin if something goes wrong later (to wit, the FFDA, fill in your own word for the first "F").

Sell a few of them covered calls, I say, while the price is still good.

On the other hand, technical analysis is not always correct, so there's risk in selling. This week, I've sold some November 13 calls, and got something like the high .70's for them - I'm pretty happy with that. If the stock is at 20 in November, well, I blew it, then again, if it's under $13, I've made a good move.

Now, don't everyone go and sell at once, please!! (By the way, I still own very few shares, so it won't be me bringing the price down.)

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