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Message: Re: Breakout
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Mar 11, 2013 12:51PM
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Mar 11, 2013 10:47PM

mdcenter,

For now, one way to figure it, with one warrant, you can buy .6 of a share at a per share price of 2.40, so .6 for $1.44. And you can turn around and sell your .6 share for .60x3.41 or about 2.04, so, so that's a .60 cent profit. For now, that looks to me like a .42 time premium. Assuming we get more in the money eventually (eg, just before release of data in August?), say, maybe around $4.50, the intrinsic price will be higher (4.50x.60 minus 1.44 = 1.26). My guess, and it's a wild one at that, haven't thought it through completely, is that the time value might be .35 or so, so the warrant might trade at around 1.60.

Perhaps it's easier to figure by multiplying everything by 10, so no decimals involved.

The way you got to 1.56 is the same as above, but you used $5 as a share price, whereas I used 4.50 and I think that's a correct way to figure it.

My overall plan is to keep the vast majority of the warrants at least until right before the PDUFA date - as Seaside implies, that's where the rubber will be meeting the road. At that point, there will be methods we can use to protect ourselves somewhat from disaster, but of course, they come at a cost.

Assuming we get what we want from the FDA, whatever warrants I have, absent some bad news, will be kept right to a week or so before they expire, and then they will be traded and/or exercised, depending on how things look. Feb 2016 will not be sufficient time to realize the full potential we so often talk about. Then again, maybe someone will pay us $25 or so a share long before expiry - not impossible!


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