Re: Management...
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 14, 2012 09:59PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Wow, indeed. I apologize for characterizing your scenario as preposterous. It was a poor choice of words. It sounds too personal and I meant nothing personal, as I'll assume you meant nothing personal by characterizing my thoughts as obtuse. After all, isn't that what this board is supposed to be about.
I suggested $10 - 50 million because it is a small enough amount to possibly fly under the radar of public scrutiny (assumming this unnamed country allows its citizens to scrutinize). I suggested on option because there is a precedent for this type of arrangement that may assist w/ FDA issues. Purchasing an option to secure a fixed cost for future delivery of goods is common. It would be a defensible transaction even under a worse case scenario.
You ask whether the 2 previous financings totaling in excess of $200million with zero collateral is acceptable - my answer is "yes". You also ask whether one loan for 200 million secured by 200 mil of insulin is preposterous? My revised answer is preposterous is a little strong. Highly unlikely is more in line. The primary difference between these two sources of funds is the mandate that governs the principles. The convertible debt buyers are professional investors who have probably hedged their position, but even if they haven't they are in the business of taking investment risk.
You ask several questions which I will answer to best of my ability:
So, assuming your negative scenario (AT LAST we agree on something "preposturous" :-) ) that we do not get approved, what does mgmt do? Fold up or look for foreign markets?
What management would do under this scenario depends on why they were rejected and what it would cost to fix. If it is an expensive fix, it would take some form of massive restructuring and recapitalization leaving current shareholders w/ a virtual total loss. Its not out of the question that the note holders for notes due in 12/2013 would force this action.
Probably preposturous to assume they'd first look to the country that offered 200mil PRE-APPROVAL.
I assume you are being facetious. But I'll agree to the extent that this would be a highly unlikely first course of action. Especially since if it were available they would already have done it (like now).
Trust me when I say, I hope you are right and they put this type of financing in place. I just don't consider it very likely. By the way, have you suggested this to Matt Pfeffer?
Regards.