Re: Thanks!
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 30, 2023 09:33AM
Bodysurfer: "I heard that the price of Lithium is down 80%...?,?????? Surely that has an effect on stock prices ??"
Well, Neighbor, you are right on target with that projection. Surely it had an effect on stock prices!
What a difference a year makes, eh? See the article linked below from May 2022:
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/batteries/chart-lithium-prices-are-through-the-roof-this-year
Moving forward on the time line let's take a look at the price of lithium-ion battery packs here in late 2023 as an example of what has happened since May of 2022 when the price of lithium was in a much happier place for investors in lithium mining companies:
https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/
Essentially, the Bloomberg article above says: "New York, November 27, 2023 – Following unprecedented price increases in 2022, battery prices are falling again this year. The price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped 14% to a record low of $139/kWh, according to analysis by research provider BloombergNEF (BNEF). This was driven by raw material and component prices falling as production capacity increased across all parts of the battery value chain, while demand growth fell short of some industry expectations."
Something to consider regarding Thacker Pass for 2024:
"Persistently low prices for cobalt, lithium and nickel could delay the development of needed new sources, creating shortfalls and driving up battery prices in the longer term, thereby slowing decarbonization efforts. "
"More than 20 lithium mines opened in 2023, according to commodity data provider Fastmarkets. Miners have also been expanding production with an eye on the long term because new mines on average take 10 to 15 years to come online.
With supply increasing and demand falling short of expectations, prices have fallen. The price of lithium carbonate—a raw material in batteries—fell 70% this year, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data shows."
"Lithium prices are likely nearing the bottom because producers are now selling close to or below their cost of production, according to Jordan Roberts, battery raw materials analyst at Fastmarkets. “Producers [will] consider further production cuts to balance the market and stem further losses,” he said. "
So where does this LESS than Good News come from? See the article linked:
In March 2022, lithium prices hit an all-time high of $77,000 per tonne.
So what are lithium prices today, in December 2023?
First, take a look at the article linked below and scroll down to the chart. Below the chart set the time line to review the last 5 years:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
Sometimes a single picture, in this case a chart, says more than a thousand words. This chart would be one of those times.
OK, now see this link:
https://www.metal.com/price/New-Energy/Lithium
Keep in mind when reviewing the chart from www.metal.com that there are many ways to measure it and some of those ways include the CNY or RMB per metric ton. Current exchange rate is 7.088 Yuan per each $1 USD.
Unless the Demand criteria changes drastically above preseent projections then 2024 is not going to remotely resemble the high lithium prices seen in 2022 and not seen since then.
Then again, a miracle could happen, couldn't it?
Best wishes to all.
Okiedo