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Message: Revisiting the Lasonde Curve

Thoughtful and insightful as always rkeeb.

Only thing I would add is that I hope LAC is ultimately valued as a specialty chemical company, rather than a miner. Specialty chemical companies typically trade at 10-11x EBITDA, whilst for miners it is typcally 6-7x.

I note that ALB and LTHM currently trade at 8-9x EBITDA, but did trade at 10-11x in Q4 last year.

If LAAC (Cauchari) guided to EBITDA of $400m to $450m for 2024 (80% utilisation, current spot pricing and significant one-off ramp up costs), and was valued at 10-11x, the SP would be in a range of $25 to $30.

 

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