The investing world is much different than it was a few years ago.

Please don't take offense to my long-winded and apparent simplistic point of view. I want to voice another take...right or wrong.

I believe LAC's best ROI has passed. Most here bought in between $5-$20 (Q3 '20 thru Q4 '21) in an environment where money was thrown around almost without regard. Just look at ARK. There are plenty of examples. We saw annual LAC returns that weren't just a percentage but rather a multiple. Moving forward this will never happen again. 

I ask myself, "Where is the money gravitating?" Institutions have higher cash positions looking to re-invest in companies that are currently growing (30%) and are currently profitable more so. LAC is not that!

Despite what you may think. Ford is in terrible shape. Lost $2 billion '22, declining production for years, cannibalizing the only profitable vehicle the F-150 with the lightning. They have huge debt which will only grow as they try to convert their ICE factories to EVs. They are going further in debt investing in foreign batteries companies not to turn a profit but in hope of securing batteries.  Meanwhile, if all goes exactly as planned they will turn a profit in '26 and only be producing 1 million EVs. Keep in mind that EV penetration will be creeping near 50% by then. 

GM, in my view, is in even worse shape than Ford with a terrible CEO. This choice would have been near the bottom of my list. GM can pull out at any time. Sooner the better. 

LAC is in bed with China, this is not good in today's political environment.  Unfortunately, the only potential profit will come from a Chinese-owned company but this too will be another 18+ months to ramp up phase I. Go buy GNENF now if that's what you want to own. Ganfang will likely buy out LAC North America's interest so maybe someone smarter than I can figure out where the cash balance will be when all is said and done. 

Months ago I spoke on the poor construction management building out Cauchari-Olaroz. In all those videos over the years, it always looked like a ghost town instead of an ant hill. Let's be real. In March 2017 they announced the feasibility study for CO and here we are Q1 '23 and a minimum time frame to full production is 7-8 years later. This was with a virtually known production process. 

Let's apply this to TP with a larger phase I, a new technology, and as I predicted a 2-3 times feasibility study cost. I think construction will likely be 4-5x. I think it's important to be realistic as a retail investor. The construction of TP is in a very remote area. The closest town is Winnemucca with a population of 8,000 people. If you spent any time there you would know the town is up in arms. They have not contacted any local contractors, suppliers, or workforce personnel. The people of Winnemucca do not believe this is ever going to happen. Why you might ask? They have seen many meetings at the Martin over the years but no actions. I'm certain this will change but it's going to take a very long time. Construction will not start this year. It will take a minimum of 4 years to build and likely 2 years to ramp to meaningful production. That's 2029. There are tremendous challenges to overcome as a construction company before you start spending money. 

If you find yourself wondering why LAC isn't above $30 and you're looking for reasons for it to pop then maybe it's time to reassess. LAC is not on the radar of institutional investors at the moment.

I sold my large position and bought back some $30 puts a while ago. All in all, LAC was a great investment. I hope I'm wrong to sell for all of you out there.