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Message: Calculation for Lac`s PE

It's nice to be long at the moment. Congratulations to all new and old.  The trend is with us and electrification is here to stay.

We all know that lithium prices have risen a lot and presumably keep rising as the need for the EV transition increases. Momentum is now on securing important minerals and ensuring cheap energy, but the green transition will return and will further push up prices and needs. I have worked with green transition and see a great need for storage of power in buildings to even out power consumption from infrastructure, and make better use of solar energy. This need is not at all factored into the Lithium need. On the other hand, there are also a lot of places with opportunities for new Lithium mines.

Conclusion: The risk of Lac is now minimal, we will see production from Agentina and Nevada, it is only a matter of when.

Costs/sales prices and production volumes will be estimates, but below is my best and conservative guess.

2022

Facts.

Argentina will target 30,000 tons annually over the next few years.

Nevada will target 60,000 tons annually over the next few years.

Argentina (another location) will target 30,000 tonnes over the next few years.

Cost pr. ton $ 4.000

Sales price per ton $78,200

Handling cost $50 million annually

Used for the calculation of key figures.

Cost per ton $20,000 this is all cost incl. handling, interest, etc.

Salesprice per. ton $35,000 in 2022, 45,000 in 2023, 50,000 in 2024, 50,000 in 2025.

Think it's conservative, and production volumes will of course be a guess, but remember that PE

values are generally paid in advance. Calculation is to hit a PE of about $15. This I think is low for a development company. For information PE for ALB is $36,9 double of below calculation.

Year 2022/23

Production 20,000 tons. The SP of $40 will yield a PE 17 and market capitalization 5.2 billion.

Year 2023/24

Production 30,000 tons. The SP of $90 will yield a PE 16 and market capitalization 11.7 billion.

Year 2024/25

Production 90,000 tons. The SP of $300 will yield a PE 14 and market capitalization 39 billion.

In 2025/26

Production 120,000 tons. The SP of $400 will yield a PE 15 and market capitalization 52 billion.

Year 2026/27

Production?

Of course, many things can happen. The company will be divided, new acquisitions, issuance of more shares, new partner etc. The government is helping with funding, which will significantly reduce interest rates/costs.

Still, I think it describes the values of Lac.

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Apr 02, 2022 08:11AM
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Cal
Apr 02, 2022 10:03AM
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Apr 02, 2022 12:23PM
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Apr 02, 2022 01:32PM
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