Re: Short Update
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 23, 2021 12:30PM
It does appear we are playing a high stakes game at this point.
In my mind this is how I see it:
Clearly Politive outcome: I could very easily see the SP rising 2X+ in a very short period of time if there is a definitely positive ruling for LAC. In part because of shorts covering, in part because of how high profile this case has become, and in part because there are LAC investors that have cashed out a large portion of their earnings after the large early year spike, waiting for the TP green light to inject money back into the stock.
Clearly Negative outcome: No doubt we will see a sharp sell off (10-25%?) for the short term. However just based on the value of Argentina alone (+ cash on hand that could be used to invest in other projects), I can't see the SP suffering a sustained dip for longer than a few months, and I suspect there will be a number of investors that will get back into LAC if there is a flash sale that deep.
The outcome I wonder most about is how the SP will react to more split descision (most likely outcome IMO), kicking the can down the road? I suspect there will be some short term investors that will jump ship, frustrated they are not going to get the quick "pop" they were hoping for (especially with most indexes at record highs now). But I don't suspect this will be sustained at all, and any dips would be bought up pretty quickly.
Quite the ride we are all on :)