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Message: Re: Impact to Liberty Mines if Nickel Stays below $10/lb

Re: Impact to Liberty Mines if Nickel Stays below $10/lb

posted on Jul 02, 2008 10:48AM

I, too, am worried about nickel prices. We're around $9.50/lb right now and I am concerned we are going to dip down below $9.00. If we see some more increases in inventories in the next few weeks, we could find nickel prices drop further. Demand is not returning to levels that were forecast/expected and between the damage that was done with last spring's price spike and a lot of supply coming online very soon, we could see a glut of nickel on the market and a serious depression in price. At $9.50/lb, even at full production, we will not make a significant profit, and while cash flows will be healthy, we will not make a large return on our original exploration/development investment. Take nickel down to $8.00-$9.00 and we are barely making a return. If we reach full production and fail to turn a quarterly profit... I shudder to think of the consequences.

It seems as if Liberty has missed the boat. Had we been at full production at this time last year, we would have made huge profits from Redstone and McWatters and been in a strong cash position at this point to weather a period of weak nickel prices as we proved up our newer reserves. At this point, let us hope that nickel prices start to improve to $10 or higher.

This is why the senior producers let the juniors do all the risky work.

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