Re: Credit where Credit is due.
posted on
May 21, 2008 06:45AM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
There is a fear amongst some that nickel prices will continue to slowly decay over the coming months. Supply seems to be in excess of demand and there is a lot of production coming online in the next 12-18 months. For those that believe this will occur, the delays at Liberty's mines may cause us to miss advantageous nickel prices and put us in a position where we are barely profiting from our operations. If nickel goes below $10 per pound (there are many mines that will still be quite profitable at $9 nickel), we will be earning back our mine development cash, but very little in the way of profits (and thus, a low return on equity).
On the flip side, there are some who believe that nickel prices will maintain their current levels of $11-$12+ per pound and for those people, LBE's share price is an attractive buy. But given the market activity for our shares lately, it seems we have established a bit of an equilibrium between the buyers and the sellers.
Nickel prices are taking it on the chin so far this morning, dropping below the $11.50/lb mark. Going from $12.00/lb to $11.50/lb may not seem like much, but it's pure profit we're losing.
Nevertheless, at $0.70, I think we've got a great bargain here, even with the potentially painful downside. But clearly, there are some investors who do not agree or do not have the same appetite for risk that some of us do.
I don't subscribe to the manipulation theory: there isn't enough volume to really warrant it. There are just more people who want to get out of LBE than in.