Re: 96c ouch
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 03, 2008 10:22AM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
There are some uncertainties that are causing the share price to be beat up.
1) When will Liberty achieve profitable operations? 6 months? 12 months? What kinds of delays could push that timeline out further? Do they have the cash to survive that long? What if the financing falls through?
2) Nickel prices @ $13.00 right now.... which creates a decent profit for Liberty. But what if it drops to $10 or $11 per pound? Right now, LME Nickel is still trading high on speculative trading, but the supply/demand fundamentals support a lower price. LME Nickel may drop to $10 per pound until demand starts to eat up inventories again. If this happens, Liberty will be barely profitable... less than $10 and we'll be giving our nickel away to just pay for our operating expenses.
We just have to get over these hurdles. If you're in long, then don't let the daily price fluctuations bother you... and see opportunities to average down when the share price is below $1 like it is today. If this financing comes through as we hope, we'll have the cash we need to put everything in place this year and turn a nice profit next year, assuming LME nickel is kind to us.
In a different equities market, our share price would be much higher at this point... but we're getting beat up by an uncertain market. There is a lot more risk adverse investors out there than there was 12 months ago. I don't expect much upward movement in our share price, in fact it may even dip down below 90 cents a few times, until 3rd quarter results come out.