Safe...I sure hope U are right and I think U are on the price of gold but its down anothe $25 today and K sure isnt doing great at 18.70 this morning. .Yikes...G

This is a very rough ballpark with lots of weeds, but I see the decline from the first peak at 1000 took 7 weeks to run its course. After that, the next decline ran 9 weeks, with a minor rally towards the end. Following that we had a 5 week decline before we hit the turn that took us back to 1000. Average: 7 weeks.

We're now in the 6th week of the current decline with the 30 week MA @ 850. There's some support down there, so given that things tend to overshoot, I'll call the turn @ 845 sometime in the next 2 weeks. That's a 50% retracement, which is perfectly normal in these conditions.

I don't think the next up leg takes us past the old high though. I see a wide trading range developing here that could run for several years. If I'm right, then money will be made on the swings in major producers like Kinross, and if they have warrants, that could be the best way to play it.

I've been waiting for this moment to get back in actually, so that means I'm probably wrong and gold will drop to 700 and retest the old low...LOL!

ebear