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posted on Nov 27, 2008 12:29PM

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Agrium and Kinross – Floyd's Manager Picks
Posted: November 27, 2008, 4:30 PM by David Pett

Manager: Robert Floyd, Lead Manager, R.A. Floyd Capital Management Inc.
Style: Growth at a reasonable price (GARP)
Fund: Floyd Growth
Strategy: Focused on mid to large cap companies with solid management, good growth prospects, decent cash positions and strong balance sheets

Bullish on:

Agrium Inc.
Kinross Gold Corp.
Vero Energy Inc.

Bearish on:

NovaGold Resources Inc.


Commentary:

"From a valuation standpoint, the sell off has created some very nice values, but we still face a fairly weak economy. The market will lead us out of this and the real question mark is how long will it take for some of the stimulus that has been engineered to start taking hold. Interest rates are starting to decline which is positive but the number of companies that require financing is still high and companies that do not have a strong balance sheet will fall prey to the market.

"On a massive pullback we added to Agrium because the valuation is attractive. Yes, the end market is weakening a little bit, but agriculture will continue to be an important issue going forward. Farmers will still need fertilizer and I want to be involved in companies where there is a requirement to hold the asset.

"Kinross is a fabulous play right now with a strong balance sheet. It recently completed the acquisition of Aurelian Resources, which is an attractive asset and interesting play that gives them future growth. In the mean time, they are targeted to produce 1.8 to 1.9 million ounces of gold in 2008. When they reported their last quarter, they were one of the few companies to meet their guidance and their cost of capital is coming down as new production comes on stream.

"Vero Energy is an exciting little company with exposure to natural gas. Heading into winter, a more bullish tone on natural gas is surfacing especially given the recent report that showed natural gas inventories dropping. Vero Energy's current production in 2008 is 8100 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The exit guidance for this year is between 8400 and 8800 boe/d while 2009 guidance is for 8800 to 9200 boe/d, so that is significant growth. I like the commodity, I like the management and also, Vero is a low cost producer.

"We are avoiding companies that have really bad balance sheets. Even though I like the gold sector, I don't like companies like NovaGold Resources who need huge financing to bring production on stream."

Agrium Inc.
Kinross Gold Corp.
Vero Energy Inc.
Bombardier Inc.
Rogers Communications Inc.

One-year annualized return: - 41.3%
Three-year annualized return: - 15.11%
(Through Oct. 31, 2008)

Morningstar rating: N/A

All data provided by Morningstar unless otherwise noted
*Data provided by company

David Pett

Photo by Peter J. Thompson/National Post

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