(The law won't be applied in less than a year because) "it does not establish that the mining law is an organic (aka stand alone) law. It doesn't say it this way, and it will depend on many other connected laws that are not yet ready for approval."

Right.

Did it take them a year to "renegotiate" oil concessions? How about the complete overhaul of the tax code? The telcom law? Radio & TV licenses? They moved pretty quickly on those, didn't they? Even the long awaited fantasy constitution didn't take that long. Recall how fast they moved towards the end.

I think we've seen the precedent for this already, haven't we? Someone wants Corriente and they know they can get it cheap. Why? Because although they'll never admit it, the govt. of Ecuador has killed any chance they had of a significant mining industry. Too clever by half. Now they're down to a mere two projects, and no one will take them on without a significant discount to make up for the self-inflicted political risk. So slam 'em down again boys. It worked the first and second time. Third time's a charm.

I expect we'll see the same friendly "deal" done with Corriente as we saw with Aurelian. As for the rest, they'll probably just sell out to Kinross and walk away.

The irony here is that with all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over "multinationals" that's exactly what they'll end up with, because no one else will take on the risk. In that sense, Anderson had it right.

I'll bet Tye's feeling a bit glum right now. Imagine how cheap he could have got Aurelian if he'd just waited a couple more months? Shoe's on the other foot now Tye. Looks like Aurelian's board put one over on you as well...heh.

ebear