"That's either a sign a turn is near, or more grief is in my (our) future."

One of the most discouraging things I read was from an earlier post of yours, when you wondered if KBX would sell for a thirty percent premium. I assumed you drew that figure from MFN's sale. That would be a loathesome reward for my patience, based on both (non-metal) market and gold spot metrics.

But this seems like a strange time to sell.

A. We have an FOMC meeting at the end of the month. The last few have been punts. The next one is June, I believe, and after that, proximity to the election might quiet the doves. Though it is hard to imagine more QE on bullish market days like today, a few unemployment rumblings may prompt more action. Cynicism aside, the Fed's mandate is employment, not Dow 15,000.

If that is unimaginable, then consider some more verbal gamesmanship from Mr. Bernancke without the actual QE.

B. Gold is basing, if not slumbering at Jim Sinclair's long-claimed sweet spot of 1650. That's a six month level if one looks beyond the Sturm-und-Drang of the dailies.

C. Your aforementioned updated resource estimate... though I always tack eight more weeks to any release date.

D. Earnings season is in full swing, and it looks pretty good right now. (One tell is that there were few pre-announcements.)

Now the above are not meant to suggest a bottom or basing in KBX. It just seems like a lot that could cause us to break in either direction with some oomph in the near-term.

And if that break is dramatically lower, I'd buy to lower my cost basis. If we stay here, I'll hold. Frankly, my mettle would be tested if we broke to the upside, as selling when one approaches even is a notorious reflex.

Maybe I'll throw in the towel in the dog days of summer. But there's a lot of information coming our way this April and May, good or bad, and I'm willing to see it through.