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Message: Re: Amazing coin flip result

Jan 17, 2012 12:47PM

Jan 18, 2012 09:08AM

"...yes, it would have been a problem, repeatedly, over the past three years or so to have held and watched profits evaporate."

Oh, don't I know.

"Way, way back in time, it was over $3!"

It did indeed sneak above 3.00 in April of 2006. As you noted, and as is clear from the (nearly) ten year run of this stock, 2.00 is an ugly drop-down ceiling, dropping down on the heads of the shareholders. Clunk. True of most ceilings, 2.00 actually became support in 2006.

Yeah, 2011 was a heinous 2.00 double top. I see that with perfect hindsight.

"I seem to recall you would be underwater at this price point."

Oh, I'll be underwater for a while, thanks to some wash sales and a horribly timed conviction that the second KBX 2.00 top in '11 was in fact a break-out. I bought into the August freefall because the price of gold was holding, the fall buying season was ahead, and the KBX price action just seemed out of sync.

But KBX never corrected, the POG shuddered in September, and tax loss selling throttled our shares in November.

Yep, underwater. But once I got that "imminent Kimber break-out" schtick out of my system, I found peace being long.

Remember, I sold for a 75% profit last January (which was itself a long).

No, I didn't accumulate in this recent sub-dollar opportunity. Recall that I was looking for eighty cents. And no, I personally won't buy more at these levels.

As for my long-term intention, KBX has caused me such grief, I've become inured to its price action. I've reached the "so what?" threshold. When you hold through what seemed like a year at fifty cents, that happens.

I've also seen what happens when a development company imprudently issues shares and its forum is overcome with the stink of censorship. We aren't them.

So I can't give you a personal price target. Sorry. But we're in different positions, as you are sitting on some very fine short-term pops, particularly after this late afternoon trading. We are just under a 40% gain in six trading days on valid, even above average volume.

Also, gold is testing September's tentative ceiling / support. Personally, I hope you hold.

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Jan 19, 2012 02:17PM
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