Re: Time to buy???
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 19, 2011 07:47PM
Creating value through Exploration and Development in the Sierra Madre of Mexico
I'll happily buy Witch Hazel. What's the ticker symbol? :-)
(sth, he's referring to my comment I made in a previous post.)
Yeah, let's establish some context for the KBX buy and hold crowd. Let's back-date five years ago. Gold was about 650 dollars per ounce. Currently at about 1,700 dollars, that's (around) 160% gain. KBX was 2.35, effectively double its current price.
But it's much worse. We have five years inflation, under-reported of course, and the argument that gold equities are LEVERED to the price of gold.
At this point, the buy-and-holds trundle out the usual boogeymen: gold ETF's stealing thunder, animus for JP, the Canadian dollar, the three phases of a junior, and the grand-daddy of all explanations, the naked short seller.
You can prove the naked short seller exists by his invisibility. See, you can't see him. What more proof do you need? If you could see him, he'd get arrested. Remember all that talk about prosecuting the naked short sellers? When was that? 2008, 2009? "The only people getting rich on Bay Street will be the lawyers and the owners of juniors."
The point is that buy-and-holds are so heinously BEHIND the gold curve, this stock could double, even triple from Friday's price, and still be nowhere near a good long-term investment for those who bought and held.
That context is for the buy-and-holders who will claim vindication when Kimber "takes off" to three dollars. That would be stellar only for the very short-termers against whom they argued. An intellectually honest long-termer should not feel vindicated until this company compensates them at least double the price of gold.
Me? I sold for a long-term gain of about 75% in January 2011. Then dreadfully, I bought in again this summer around 1.80, and I kept buying on the way down. I thought the pop in the price of gold would finally vault the KBX price through the dreaded 2.00 ceiling.
And here I am, looking at a lower KBX price than my January sale, while gold has since risen another 21%.
Cheers and wealth to holders of KBX short or long term.