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Message: Re: Goldcarp/ Seeker Debate

Aug 24, 2010 10:19PM

Aug 24, 2010 10:42PM

Sep 02, 2010 02:08PM

Sep 02, 2010 06:27PM

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Sep 02, 2010 10:14PM

Sep 02, 2010 11:50PM

Seeker,

Apology accepted. And I hope I have not offended you.

If you reread my posts, I never say that Kimber can't rise in price, only that I think this Mexico situation has the potential to be a drag on price appreciation. For example, instead of doubling, Kimber might only go up 40 percent, just to pick some numbers out of the air.

I took the Kimber profit in December because the stock had topped in the 1.80 range and was dropping fast. My thought was that it was acting badly and as we look back, some who rode it up and didn't sell, gave most or all of their profit back and are now hoping for another chance to cash out. They could be a problem on the way up as they sell this time to lock in gains.

I've been buying back KBX at varying points in time since December because I believe this stock has a future. I can't pick bottoms, or tops, I just try to get the 60 or so percent in the middle. I have a larger position now than I did before selling in December. It currently is slightly underwater, but Kimber has been profitable for me overall. If and when Kimber has a move, I will sell some then, just as I sold half of my Silver Quest position today (Thursday) after it had doubled. I believe in taking profits. Some will question that, but to each his own.

To repeat, I have not sold a share of Kimber since December 2009. And I also have never sold any stock short. Just don't do it. Period. And I'm not trying to drive down Kimber's price in order to buy more. I have about as much money committed in this one stock as I feel is prudent -- it is my largest single position now that I've halved Silver Quest.

While the Kimber move from .60 to .80 you mentioned is 33 percent, it also was coming off a base that collapsed from 1.80, so I don't see it as cause for great celebration. Take a 50 percent loss and you need a 100 percent gain just to get back to even.

I have followed the Mexico situation relatively closely for four to five months and was offering it as a potential explanation for why Kimber, a stock that many on this board believe "has the goods" as in a minable deposit, has not participated in the big upward moves of gold, silver, as have many other juniors.

Allow me to turn the tables on you. Despite the fact that this stock is up from its bottom, it still is $1, give or take, below last year's high. We've gone nine-plus months, in a generally strong period for precious metals, with this stock down considerably over that time. Why do you think this is so?

Why haven't others, either individual investors or companies, taken advantage of what we both seem to agree is an underpriced stock?

What is the catalyst needed to change that, and when might it happen?

That is the sort of discussion I was hoping for when I first threw out the Mexico story. If someone were trying to talk down the stock, as I've been accused of doing, this would not be the place to do so. The traffic is tiny here compared to other message boards, at least in my opinion judging by the infrequency of posts. In fact, considering Agoracom's flap about employee postings to boost traffic, I'm surprised I have not been accused of being one of those. By the way, I'm not.

You see me as negative. I see myself as a counterbalance to what I see as sometimes Pollyannish thoughts regarding this stock's near-term gain potential. In the parlance of the times, it is what it is. This stock has not performed. And I think the worst thing that can happen is for a stock to be promoted to, and bought by, investors with unrealistic expectations -- this thing will double in months, that sort of thing -- and then to have those holders disappointed, and dumping their stock. Probably it doesn't matter here because of the low board population. But Kimber is a relatively low-volume stock, which can have trouble dealing with big liquidations. Some have speculated that institutional dumping has led to this decline.

I have advised others to invest in Kimber, but when I did this widely (beyond my family)beginning approximately a year ago, I told all of them they should be looking to average in and have a two- or three-year commitment. For those who listened then, I advised profit taking and doing as I have since, reacquiring periodically. I still believe in Kimber's potential. I also understand that it never hurts to continually reassess investments using the latest data, both company-specific and macro. I count the Mexico situation under the latter category.

Your thoughts?

Take care,

Goldcarp

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Sep 03, 2010 09:54AM

Sep 03, 2010 11:09AM
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Sep 03, 2010 01:53PM
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