Letter to a Fellow Kimber Shareholder
posted on
Jun 20, 2010 12:04PM
Creating value through Exploration and Development in the Sierra Madre of Mexico
S, An interesting thing to note:
Graham and Dodd's famous work about investing, i.e. Security Analysis, written in 1934, talked about the two main investment vehicles, i.e. stocks and bonds. Stocks always payed higher dividends and also added the advantage of potential capital gains in exchange for risk, but bonds were more certain involving payments and security of principle.
That has all changed in the past one hundred years with the advent of the Federal Reserve and its policies of currency debasement and inflation. No one in their right mind would think of investing in a bond today and still think they have a chance of beating inflation.
Real interest rates on most corporate bonds and government bonds are less than zero, meaning that you are actually losing purchasing power of your money over time if you subtract the inflation rate from the interest rate the bonds are paying you.
So bonds, an investment vehicle that have been used throughout most of the history of western civilization, have essentially become a non-viable investment. The only other types of "securities" left are stocks, which don't pay anything in dividends anymore, at least not what they have paid historically.
Why are bonds and dividend paying stocks a thing of the past? The answer is because money does not retain its purchasing power anymore. It has been steadily losing its ability to act as a store of value for many generations as a result of inflation.
Therefore the mindset of investors has insidiously also changed. Investors no longer look to a company to make a profit and pay them dividends. They look to a company's stock to go up so they, the investors, can make money on the capital gains as new groups of investors come into buy the paper from them.
Therefore, investors have ceased to be businessmen and have now become speculators. This is the inevitable course that must ensue when paper money takes the place of a backed, substantial currency.
So in response to your letter: The 10% returns people have experienced in the stock market for the past 100 years have been a fabrication of the increasing money supply, facilitated through inflation. They are not real until one gets out of the game. Just as some people collected social security for 40 years before they died without ever having to pay in, some people cashed out in 2000 right at the top of the market and got a huge payday without putting in much work.
They got lucky. They were born at the right time.
Unfortunately, their children and grandchildren will not be so fortunate, in my view.
I agree with you, I believe those days are over. the wheel has turned and will continue to turn away from government-sponsored security and again towards personal responsibility.
Life is indeed a game of adjustments. Those who see this turn and interpret it correctly and make the necessary adjustments, will not only survive, but they will thrive. The great mass of humanity, however, will not be able to repair their situations quickly enough and unfortunately for them, prove to rightly deserve their moniker as "the great mass of humanity." Thanks for your email. It is good to give thought to such things. Bull
Bull,