Bull
I have re-read your analysis about likleyhood of kimber buyout at 40, 70, 92, 99 percent chance over next 4 years. With the undervalued nature of this Junior it seems to me a smart Larger company would make an offer sooner as opposed to later to get the best "deal" and value. What does you "gut" tell you about this philosophy??
M.
M, On the surface, what you say would seem to make sense, however, in such business situations, it often doesn't work that way. Here's why: Think of yourself or people you know. When do you spend a lot of money. The answer is when you have a lot of money to spend. And when you have a lot of money, you will pay up for what you want, regardless of price. This is why you look for the beer on sale at the liquor store but will pay $15 for a drink with an umbrella in it while on vacation in Bermuda and will tip the waitress on top of that. You're in a different type of mood and mindset when in Bermuda. It's the same way with company managements. When the coffers are full and money is flowing in, it will flow out more freely. When times are good and everyone's happy, the money will also flow out more freely.
For this reason, as gold continues to rise, these bigger miners are going to start making more money. They're going to start building up cash in their bank accounts and then they're going to start going out to look for juniors to buy. They'll be feeling good at this time. They might have to pay 7 or 8 dollars a share for Kimber by then rather than 95 cents a share right now, but that is how human psychology works.
Search your feelings, Luke, and you will sense that this is true.
Sure it makes more sense to buy things when they are cheap, but people don't do that with stocks, only at Wal-Mart. For some reason bargains don't register in people's brains involving stocks in the same way. Probably this is because they can't brag about their purchases right away to their friends. If you get a good deal at Wal-Mart, you can show it off right away to your friends who say things like, "Wow, what a bargain!" When it's a stock, your friends say, "You bought a gold mining stock! What an idiot!" It's hard to win involving investments and your friends reactions in any case. Years later you can go back to them and say, "remember that stock, Kimber, I bought for 95 cents. Now it's worth $12!" First of all, they won't care. Second of all, they won't remember. And third of all: If they do remember, they will not be happy for you. They'll most likely just be mad and tell you that you were lucky. This will make you mad. So you see, you really can't win.
The game is over with Kimber. They have what Keith Barron and Eric King thought they had. They can build an economical mine and make money for a legitimately long mine life. When you hear about one exploration project in 2000 will be economical... Well this is that one. And Kimber still have more land to explore. The story appears to be set up to only get better from here.
In other words, as I said in one of my Youtube videos, "Kimber has the goods". What we all have to do now is just continue to sit back and wait for the situation to unfold as it will. It will unfold, but in its own time, on its own terms. Don't get yourself in trouble by trying to tell the market what to do. It will do what it has to do, but it will do it.
All the best, Bull