Re: John Doody
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 26, 2009 02:37AM
Creating value through Exploration and Development in the Sierra Madre of Mexico
Given the current gold price of nearing $1,200 per ounce and the amount of gold available at the Monterde per SB, we are now talking about approximately 550 million dollars worth of gold equivalent ounces in Monterde alone. With the addition of Pericones and Setago properties and the potential for additional mineralization yet to be explored, my guess is that the possibility of adding another 20% to 30% to the current reserve is not so farfetched. I estimate Kimber may be worth somewhere between 600 million to 700 million dollars at the current gold price at near $1,200. But if gold can climb up to $1,650 (Jim Sinclair’s target) sometime by early next year, the Monterde property alone can be worth closed to 1.1 Billion dollars. Remember, the fix cost is $650 per ounce, $1,600-$650 = $1,000. $1,000 x 1.2 Million ounces=1.2 Billion, and with another multiple of additional 20% to 30%, we are talking about approximately 1.56 billion dollars.The current market cap of Kimber at $1.27 is about $79.46 Million. Sooner or later, the market cap of Kimber should start to equilibrate towards its book value, that is $1.27*(1.56 billion/79.46 million)= $24.93.At $1,650 Gold, Kimber’s fair market price per share should be close to $25 per share.Of course, my estimate is the most optimistic estimate with hope of $1,650 gold and another additional 30% of multiple with the assumption Kimber shares would equilibrate to its book value.On the other hand, if the price of gold drops down, the vice versa will take place and we can soon see Kimber trading toward $1.00 range again.As I am writing, I see the overnight gold price has dropped $4.60 already and hope this is not a beginning of a reverse trend.
TM