Re: The Remonetization of Gold
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 04, 2009 07:51AM
Creating value through Exploration and Development in the Sierra Madre of Mexico
As bullish on Kimber as I am in the long run, I don't buy your argument. Of the 40 or so junior developers and emerging junior producers I follow, all but four have gone up anywhere from 200 - 1000% in the last year.
My juniors have gone up in price to some extent too. Most have doubled or tripled from the lows....wish I had bought them at the price originally. So I agree that there is some interest. The smarter money is moving into the sector but the sector is still being negatively played with IMO.
Further, the real money won't come into the sector until the junior prices stop falling with the general market, again IMO. Recently they got clobbered with the targeted hit on the gold price at month end. When people have confidence in the sector that won't happen to the same degree it does now. Most people haven't yet discovered gold and silver though we are growing beards waiting for it to get going as we know it should.
So, either Kimber has internal issues, or the buying opportunity of a lifetime continues.
I don't know of any issues; I think your 2nd option is correct.
I just do not see based on empirical evidence that there is no interest in the junior miners.
The reason I feel that the interest is still lacking is the daily trading volume. Yes it is markedly improved from what it was but it is very weak on days where gold performs poorly. Those days should be buying opportunities but all you see is one or two large purchases by someone who is careful not to raise the price too much so more can be accumulated; but still the volume stinks on those days. The people who own, for the most part, aren't selling and those accumulating can't buy much without affecting the price.
Further I think the brokers/market makers/bankers deliberately make in house trades when there is little or no activity of small share lots to knock the price down. This last statement is not based on knowledge but my thoughts when I watch the trading activity and price and time of day the trades take place. The sells, which would have to be sells "at market" since they knock the price down, often come at a time when someone would be foolish to make a trade if they were selling out of a position to get their money out. Then of course both the bid and ask reset lower. When you see three trades like this in five minutes and the price gets knocked down three cents (which is significant with most juniors) you want to scream. With larger volume comes a reduced opportunity for such shenanigans. It's almost like they are saying, "I'll show you who controls the price of this stock."
I dont think we're very far away from institutional realization that the gold mining sector is where to make the next buck. The juniors will get some of that and that should start making for some higher volume trading.
Obviously the news releases, shouldn't wait for "OUR junior miner" to get on the bandwagon or we miss the party, but the sector as a whole could use some more steady volume before the news releases will have their best effect.
Perhaps in a week or two, or even a few more days if this gold push continues to move the junior volume, and it will be time to "wow" the world with what I think Kimber's news releases will say.
P.