I've been studying my Dow Theory Technical Letters from Richard Russell's service for the years 1927-29. Guess what happened to the stock market before the big crash of 29? The answer: A run-up. A BIG RUN-UP. There it is, right on the paper, based on enthusiasm, hope, faith in the U.S. Government, whatever you want to call it. Its sponsor: a very large group of people wanting something for nothing. Not wanting to work anymore if they didn't have to. Just wanting to be right, for no other reason than that they were self-proclaimed masters involving sexual prowess or champions of mixing drinks.

Do you know what? Nobody can tell when the crash is going to come anymore than anybody can tell when a bank robber is going to get caught.

Eric King cannot tell and James Dines cannot tell and believe me if Eric King and James Dines cannot tell there is no chance you or I are going to be able to.

Still, you see a bankrobber running down the street and ducking into the alley with the police chasing him and you have to say to yourself, "You know, sooner or later that guy is going to get caught. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow, but sooner or later."

Sooner of later something happens, the thief gets careless, leaves a clue, trips and stumbles, makes a call on the wrong cell phone. Sooner of later.

Trade on fundamentals, not emotion. If you can truly do this, you are in very, very small company.

A great lesson in life is once again right out of the Bible, Proverbs 20:6..."Many a man proclaims his loyalty, but when all is said and done, who can find a trustworthy man?" I ask, Who can find a man who will do what he says he will do?

Most people don't follow through on their promises. Most people commonly betray their friends and family. Most people fail miserably at just about anything they try. And most people can't sit tight and believe what they believe. It was the hardest thing for Jesse Livermore to learn. Ironically, he doesn't write at all about how he learned it in his book, how to sit tight. He says that you need to do it, but not how to do it, how to concentrate, how to believe. Maybe that's why it's so hard, even he didn't know how he got to it.

You know, if Kimber goes into the toilet from here, sure it wil be hard for me, but that's my fault if I feel that way. My thinking is right. My reasoning is right. I know what inevitably must happen. I can't guarantee a rush into gold or another mania in my lifetime like James Dines has gone on record to guarantee. But I can say what needs to happen eventually to put things right with the world.

The only thing that can stop me here is my pride, my low state need of having to be right, and guess what. Fortunately for me and for some of you who might get something out of this, I don't have to be right. I don't have to call the bottom or the top or laugh at others that cannot. All I have to do is read books and play baseball with my son and love my wife and raise my children and take care of my patients.

All I need to do is be patient. You need to be patient too.

I enjoy reading all the other message boards. They put out all these facts about whose trading what and drill results and whose bought and sold what.

Do you know how important all that is? It's about as important as whose number one of the Scandinavian rap charts.

Patience and sitting: That is what is important, courage in the face of seemingly overwhelming odds. That is important. Being right isn't important. The need to be right is in the land of childish desires. We all need to grow up and sit where we are, with what we believe. If you believe this story, then believe it! If you don't then get the heck out. Go ride a motorcycle or something. Go get a tattoo. Bull