In an interview in Barron's this week, Arjun Murti, energy analyst from Goldman Sachs, makes the assertion that Russia is hoarding its oil in order in a coordinated effort to decrease market supply and thus keep prices high. This would be a good theory except for one slight flaw, in the words of Sydney Wang from Neil Simon's Murder by Death, "Is stupid, is most stupid theory I ever heard." This type of coordinated behavior from a government who's last great idea was to confiscate all private property as a means of achieving total world domination appears a bit of a stretch. I enjoy reading interviews with young bucks like this guy, because if you analyze them carefully you will usually find one piece of critical information that demonstrates that they don't have the true practical knowledge of world events, they don't have the real life experiences that will enable them to come to the right conclusions consistently. Sure he's right about oil for now, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. Anyway, the idea that anyone over is Russia is sitting around masterminding this oil price spike is akin to the idea that Charles Manson is sitting around writing a symphony. In an academic or shielded environment it is easy to start believing all the ridiculous assertions made by professorial types whom often do believe that if they were not tirelessly martyring themselves, suffering through their mission of teaching the ignorant youth of our nation, that they'd be out there making millions in the real world. Such assertions stem more from an imaginary worldview rather than real world observations, and they can be very damaging to the casual observer's pocketbook if mistakenly taken to heart. It sounds good though. We like to believe ourselves to be rational creatures (our first error in judgment), and therefore, it gives us comfort that there are these Russian masterminds over there logically thinking this whole thing out and sipping their Vodka when in reality there is none of that. Just a bunch of hoods planning their next heist. Murti's problem is that he gives himself too much credit, and therefore makes the mistake of giving other people too much credit. When you understand that basically we're all pretty dumb, it's much easier to accept the fact that most people out there are just guessing, experimenting, trying a little bit of this and a little bit of that, hoping it won't blow up in their faces before they figure something, anything of worth out. Bull