Market Making in Kimber
posted on
May 23, 2008 09:26AM
Creating value through Exploration and Development in the Sierra Madre of Mexico
Group, A member of my investment group phoned me this morning with a very interesting observation. He's a brilliant guy and his brain works very fast, analyzing things on many different levels simultaneously, but I will try and recount it here briefly.
Point 1: Belief in the gold bull market is weak among traders
Point 2: Most people short the gold stocks are traders for larger organizations attempting to make money by moving in and out of trends.
Point 2: There are large short positions in many gold companies.
Point 3: Gold, the metal, is moving back up again in earnest.
Point 4: The sentiment among the traders is changing, not so much that they are believing in the gold bull market, because by and large, they are looking for trends, not fundamental cycles. But the trend is not moving as they would expect and they are getting increasingly concerned. Not panicking yet, just worrying a little bit more than they would like to worry.
Point 5: As a result of this concern, they are bringing in market makers to in Jesse Livermore style try and work these stocks down a little bit, shake out the weaker hands, so they can cover their short positions at a lower price if things start to really get bad, i.e. if gold really starts moving or if oil continues up or the dollar continues to tank, all of which are inevitable outcomes of the current situation.
Thanks Hawkeye for this observation.
Also, I would like to let all of you know. Most of the traders doing this stuff are young, poor students of history and have mortgage payments and car payments much higher than they probably should have. Also, Time is on our side. There is a direct relationship between panic and time before potential destruction. I saw James Dines speak last week in New York and he made a very good point about the gold and silver bull markets, that being that they are not "coming" they are "upon us." They are not imminent, but we are within them right now. They are occurring. Do your best to recognize this, and don't let some 28 year old rich kid brat shake you out of your position in this company just because he has a better computer system than you have!