Ontario's Northern Policy Institute's first publication, "The Airport/Port Transportation Authority Model: Is It Applicable for Ontario’s Ring of Fire Mineral Development? by Nick Mulder, emphasizes that it may not be the "right time" for the provincial government to assume all the risks of a crown corporation in the Ring of Fire, given "uncertain mineral markets and prices, a growing provincial deficit and debt, unresolved First Nations issues and environmental assessments."

The benefits of a "transportation authority" as opposed to a "provincial development corporation" model for the Ring of Fire are great.

The creation of Ontario's Northern Policy Institute was officially announced in August of 2012, with a $5 million commitment but Northern Ontario municipal groups and chambers of commerce have been demanding an independent policy think-tank since 2011.

Ontario said the purpose of this organization is to “develop and promote proactive, evidence-based and purpose-driven policy options that deepen understanding about the unique challenges and opportunities of Northern Ontario in addition to advancing the sustainable development and long-term economic prosperity of the North.”

“The plan was developed by northerners, for northerners and this institute will help provide an important northern perspective that will guide decisions now and into the future,” said Bob Chiarelli, then minister of infrastructure and transportation.

The fledgling Northern Policy Institute [NPI] released it's research on the Ring of Fire dealing with issues such as road access versus rail access to the mining region.

The think-tank was established to do independent studies on big issues affecting northern Ontario

Province Launches Northern Policy Institute: Quotes From Our Leaders

“One of the guiding principles of the institute is to stimulate public engagement and dialogue and promote the viewpoints of Northern Ontarians. The institute will provide valuable and welcome opportunities to members of the public to share their ideas.”

— Bill Mauro, Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Northern Development and Mines, now Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry

“In extensive consultations across the North during the development of the Growth Plan, Northern stakeholders were highly supportive of establishing a Northern Policy Institute. I am pleased to launch a policy institute that will provide input from a northern perspective for provincial policies and programs that affect Northern Ontario. As a Northern Minister and as a life-long Northerner, I welcome any tool that ensures the unique needs of the North are understood and met.”

— Rick Bartolucci, then Minister of Northern Development and Mines

"I'd like to give special thanks to NOMA and Common Voice Northwest for their strong advocacy of a Policy Institute throughout the Growth Plan consultation process as well as all Northerners who shared that vision and, of course, to Presidents Stevenson and Giroux for their continued commitment to seeing us achieve this important goal for Northerners. I feel incredibly excited and really also emotional about this announcement today. It is really a historic day for Northern Ontario. Really it is the best example you can find of northerners speaking directly to the provincial government saying this is what we need, a non profit, independent non partisan organization that will provide recommendations to the government of the day. It has been a dream for many like Common Voice, NOMA and Chambers of Commerce. I believe this organization will work for everyone here in Northern Ontario.”

— Michael Gravelle, MPP, Thunder Bay-Superior North, now acting Minister of Northern Development and Mines


Ontario needs ‘credibility’ on spending plans, economists warn

By: Michael Babad
The Globe and Mail
07/03/2014

Today, Sudbury Mayor Marianne Matichuk, Mayor Al McDonald of North Bay, Mayor Debbie Amaroso of Sault Ste. Marie, Mayor Tom Laughren of Timmins, Mayor Keith Hobbs of Thunder Bay and Kapuskasing Mayor Al Spacek are meeting for the Northern Priorities summit of the Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities.

We ask them, "If the supply and delivery of chromium concentrate, ferrochrome, and nickel is to remain at a long term competitive world price, will they endorse the simultaneous development of the "Southern" East West road integrated into the North South rail or pipeline translates into the most economic, social and environmental transport infrastructure for Ontario?" — Laura Brown

The warning to Ontario by a major U.S. credit ratings agency is a shot across the bow that threatens a full-scale downgrade.

The fresh report by Moody’s Investor Service late Wednesday wasn’t that surprising given the finances of Canada’s most populous province, but it was the first move since Premier Kathleen Wynne’s re-election and lays out the stakes for her new majority government.

“The risks are clearly to another downward ratings adjustment,” chief economist Craig Wright of Royal Bank of Canada said Thursday.

As The Globe and Mail’s Adrian Morrow reports, Moody’s changed its outlook for Ontario to “negative” and warned of a downgrade.

“The expected path to balance and stabilization of the debt burden, in our opinion, faces greater challenges than before,” Moody’s said.

Ontario, where a throne speech was to be delivered Thursday, plans to miss its short-term deficit targets, though has pledged to meet its original timeline.

Economists, though, have warned of the difficulty given the province’s weak economic outlook, raising questions about the ability to balance the books.

“Ontario’s newly elected majority Liberal government will deliver a throne speech today with a long-term plan that will echo much of what was outlined in this year’s budget,” said senior economist Robert Kavcic of Bank of Montreal, referring to the proposed budget that sparked the election and is expected to be re-introduced.

“With that in mind, Moody’s came knocking last night, slapping a negative outlook on the province’s credit rating.”

Ontario’s fiscal 2014-15 deficit is projected at $12.5-billion, or 1.7 per cent of gross domestic product. The ratio of net debt to GDP is at about 40 per cent, projected to rise to 40.5 per cent and then begin to pull back in the 2017-18 fiscal year.

Both Mr. Kavcic and Mr. Wright pointed out that Standard & Poor’s, one of the other major U.S. agencies, can be expected to pass judgment soon.

“The fiscal plan was always at risk due to the challenge in terms of containing spending,” Mr. Wright said.

“The slippage presented in the last budget obviously played into these concerns. Now we await S&P. They have had a watch on for more than two years. Typically a decision would have been taken by now but the election likely delayed it somewhat.”

A downgrade would boost Ontario’s borrowing costs, but it’s hard to put a number on it because markets have already priced in expectations of a move by S&P, Mr. Kavcic said.

Mr. Wright agreed, adding that the province will also, at some point, face greater costs, regardless.

“That would not be a simple calculation as it would depend on many things, including: the maturity profile of the debt, the existing rates paid on debt rolling over, etc.,” Mr. Wright said.

“I would think the bigger worry for all governments (and debtors more generally) is the outlook for the risk free rate of interest, which at some point will be rising from near historic lows.”

An all-out move by Moody’s would put Ontario below Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, Mr. Kavcic said, while a downgrade by S&P would bring the provincial rating in line with Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

“The bottom line is that with two credit ratings agencies now knocking, the province of Ontario needs to soon establish some credibility on its plan to control spending in the years ahead,” he warned.

RBC economists project Ontario’s economy will grow by 2.3 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2015, much better than the showing last year and the year before.

Unemployment, however, will stubbornly remain at about the 7-per-cent level.Ontario needs ‘credibility’ on spending plans, economists warn

Ontario needs ‘credibility’ on spending plans, economists warn