Some truth...some probability, some speculation!!!
posted on
Nov 02, 2012 05:11PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
A response to a basher on Stockhouse from my evil twin...I think I like it!
Hey Redfiscal,
I am amazed at the declarations that you have made ...so confidently and with so little consideration for peripherial issues and/or contributors that are assuming more and more influence as Cliffs' lack of capability is revealed.
How can you zero in on these superficial facts and as such cloud the very issue (central) that you are trying to decipher...you are the metaphoric ostrich with its head in the sand.
Consider the following if you can pull yourself away from your souther long enough to read some real probabilities without having your ego bruised beyond repair...
1. Govs need this to happen...can't wait for Cliffs to collect their pennies in a jar anymore; Cliffs can "hear the train a-comin" and they know that it is the sound of their demise; it's all that the big sharks are waiting for...but let's give credit to Cliffs, because IMHO they never did want to develop this asset...they just wanted to flip it for a profit...evrything they have done up to now, has been non-commital, disingenuous, misleading and aimed at delaying, not developping.
2. Announcement of a deal on the RR will open the flood gate for all companies involved in the ROF including other CR interests; M & A announcements will be monthly unril it subsides;
3. Glencore is on Deck waiting to go to bat; they will not wait until some other company gains momentum so as to steal away the North American stainless steel market; they will soon be in a position (following the Xstrata take-over) to buy up all CR assets in the ROF and amny others if they so chose; other sharks will be bidding also.
4. By that time, Cliffs will be in such dire need for cash, they will have to maximize the value of both BT and BD CR in the Rof, in order to sell for the best price possible without being taken over; then what would stop Glencore from developping both BT and BD in concert, since that is the most profitable solution for the region in that it creates an immediate cashflow and conforms to the Gov regs for in-country value-add vs direct ship (notwithstanding the other CR deposits).
5. By association, KWG will also see its SP rise relative to its true NAV, if Glencore doesn't come after the small CR caps before they go after Cliffs; if Glencore does come after KWG first, then I see an agreement on for CR assets against privileges on the RR; then Glencore would take out Cliffs CR assets if not Cliffs as a whole; (Cliffs is very cheap right now, for a take-over;
6. Who wants this to happen now, you say??...Let's count up the votes....Cliffs, NO (cost too much); Govs, yes...KWG,yes...ONTC, yes...FNs, yes...Glencore (in light of South African failing ops), YES..., all other mining cos in the ROF, YES....USA Gov and Military (CR=mineral of strategic significance), YES...
7. It's more probable that KWG partners up with Feds, FNs, ONTC and Glencore, (probably under the PPP umbrella) than any other option that has been discussed here for the last six months;
8. Baosteel will end up with their offtake agreements from Cliffs but at what price; they may have saved on building the RR, but they are going to have to build the mine and the smelter for Cliffs; that makes for very expensive CR...probably more than what they are paying for now from South Africa (short to medium term)
9. There will be more than one CR mine in the ROF, probably many of them owned by Glencore; the capacity of the RR will be surpassed and the port authority will have to make plans to build a deep water port near the mouth of the Attawapiskat river, to accomodate shipping to overseas destination through Hudson Bay...
To tell you the truth ...your comments about buying at .05 or.06 instead of .07 or .08 for that matter, are immaterial in the long run...this investment will be measured in multiples of X...not pennies added. Open the aperture a little and you might see the light...otherwise, start being authentic about the intentions behind your words...it is obvious that you are trying to take advantage of those who can and might be scared into selling.
I am actually not surprised to read this from you given that it is exactly the same strategy that Cliffs adopted two years ago after the failed merger between KWG and Spider...egotiscal, childish and reeks of misguidedness...and you do work for Cliffs...don't you???
Good luck to all "TRUE" KWG longs
Pear3 out!!