The Nash Equilibrium...Hmmm! Barry Interastink!
posted on
Feb 01, 2012 03:30PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
Just a short note to remind readers (shareholders) of the strong bargaining position that KWG is actually in light of their assets vs the possible cash call liability presented by the 30% ownership of BD.
Don't forget that a cash call for the development of the mine and/or processor by Cliffs would more than likely be met with a reciprocal cash call for the development of the Rairoad. KWG's bargaining position relative to Cliffs is not weakened or diminished by its ownership of 30% of BD. In fact it is protected by a very costly deadline looming, as well as investors' critical preception of Cliffs' capacity / ability to actually develop this project in a timely fashion.
More realistically we have to realize that KWG and Cliffs are locked in a co-dependant relationship that will see them have to cooperate and meet in the middle (or slightly to one side or the other) in order for both to benefit...it all boils down to John Nash's mathematical model (Nash Equilibrium) which in basic terms states that in order for both sides to be successful, neither of them can think exclusively of their own success...they need each other to succeed!!!
IMHO they probably have already admitted that realization to themselves and have been talking (negotiating) in the back room so as to maximize the returns without shooting themsleves in the proverbial foot. "Cooddoze" to Frank who had this all figured out a few years ago when he visualized the incredible "Ace in the Hole" that the "claimed" and "engineered" RR route would be when negotiations came to a head. Not only is it the only solution topographically, but this "Ace in the Hole" has been solidified by the changes to the legislation.
Yes, there has been posturing and misdirecting through partially true declarations by Cliffs, but in the end I think the Canadian and Ont govs are in a position to also get the best economic return, by protecting our "Samson" in the face of this "Goliath". They don't have to break any laws or ethical rules, but they can use legislature and timelines to facilitate and protect a fair deal for their own coffers, for a truely visionary Canadian exploration company, as well as the population (FNs and other) who's lives will be significantly affected by this development.
Cliffs is the one who has a lot of money tied up in this venture, with no way to ship the goods...somewhat similar to their situation in Labrador where their own projected/published goals are being stiffled by their lack of execution (vision) on the logistics front.
We might actually make it to the 1st of April, but then the $10Billion question will be....do they use the valuations of KWG from summer 2010 or.... do the numbers from the PEA (Preliminary Economic Assessment) come into play...(not to mention that a hostile TO is not an option for this scenario)...If that were the case, (PEA) I am pretty sure that it would be fairly easy for KWG to answer any and all cash calls either with equity, reciprocal calls or $$$ from a JV partner.
Comments welcome...best of luck to all KWG and DDI longs
LP