Re: Date of Record for DDI
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 07, 2011 04:54PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
I wouldn't consider the volume at 8.5 cents to be high. I think it's about 626,000 at close (on TSX, I can't see Alpha). That's only a little over $50,000.
Part of that bid is my own ... I put an order in for 104,000 shares a few days ago at 8.5 cents. I got the first 12,000 at 3:59pm today, leaving 94,000 outstanding.
I don't think the SP will rise as we get closer to the 15th. I think the market has priced KWG with DDI at either 8.5 or 9.0, which is why it's been floating there for the last few weeks. Everyone knows exactly how much value will be taken out of KWG (at par for DDI shares) upon opening bell on the morning of the 16th. The value of the DDI shares at opening plus the value of KWG shares at opening will be approximately equal to the value of the KWG shares at close on Thursday.
There are three reasons why there shouldn't be any upward pressure on KWG right now:
1. There is no "extra" magical value that will appear after the 15th. This is simply a rebalancing.
2. Some traders may not want 20% of their KWG value tied up for a couple weeks in limbo awaiting the arrival of DDI shares, ESPECIALLY considering the uncertainty in Europe right now. So there might actually be a few people who want out of KWG pending the distribution, as they know that they can buy back in afterwards.
3. A lot of companies, upon commencement of trading, tend to drop. This happens more frequently than gains. So there is the risk that the DDI shares, once they start trading, will actually trade UNDER initial par value. Again, this is a reason to be leery of the distribution.
I'm not trying to be negative. KWG has a lot of potential in the medium and long term. DDI probably also has potential. But for the very short term, ie. the next couple weeks, there is no special reason to jump into KWG. If I got my first 12,000 shares just before closing today, that means the rest of my buy order of 94,000 is now at the head of the line of that 626,000. I suspect that I'll get those 94,000 at 8.5 cents quite easily, before the end of next week. If I don't get them at 8.5, I'm certainly not going to change my order to 9.0 cents to chase the shares. If the line in the sand is somewhere between 8.5 and 9.0 cents right now, as determined by the market, that's probably the current fair value.