KWG price weakness...a perspective MHO
posted on
Sep 30, 2011 03:55PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
It was obvious that with markets trending lower, some investors have incurred losses. They might have been hoping to offset some of the losses with the special dividend from KWG or even answer margin calls with the immediate sale of DDI shares to create some cash. The fact is that some value is being withdrawn from KWG by spining out DDI, but that percentage decrease may have already been factored into the SP since the initial dividen annoucement.
It is also obvious that, the current market climate is not the ideal environment to launch an IPO for a diamond company, so KWG has done the smart thing and decided to wait a little longer before launching (listing) DDI on the CNSX. Two advantages in doing this...1. build momentum by announcing it on a Friday, (without a listing date or date of record) so as to give themselves a little more time and allow anticipation to build as well as the demand for the KWG shares; 2. build value by sweetening the deal (1 DDI for 16.6 KWG vs 1 for 20) and concurrently applying for ROC (return of capital) status with Revenue Canada. Both aspects potentially would increase the attractiveness and the intrinsic value of KWG shares.
On the other hand, if you are on the wrong end of a margin call, you need cash fast and this delay isn't helping you any....so you sell.... just to cut your losses...and live to fight another day...I imagine some investors were anxiously waiting to cash in on DDI shares, but IMHO KWG has once again proven that they are in it for the collective and have made the tough decision which most likely will maximize shareholder value in the long run...Unfortunately, you can't please or accomodate everyone all the time, and those who have over-extended themselves or have suffered losses because of the markets, must take control of their situation by selling.
Conspiracy theorists would argue, that Cliffs are manipulating the SP with their friends, in light of the fact that it has suffered great losses in the last month, and that it (Cliffs) havs to somehow improve its situation by executing in the RING OF FIRE, (their only really great prospect), but predictably they have not produced a report on Black Thor, they haven't confirm their base plan or expanded on it, they haven't secured the rail transport to increase production in the Labrador trough, they haven't offset coal production problems in the states, nor have they improved any relations with FNs or the asiatics, to nuture the perception of a brighter future for their shareholders.
Cliffs bargaining position is eroding uncontrollably... We might even see sub $50 for Cliffs shares before the end of the day...if we do, we have to seriously speculate on the timing of a Cliffs take-over by ????? Xstrata?????Rio Tinto???????Vale??????? Someone is bound to see the value of Cliffs' recently acquired assets at this low SP and move on them...this is the perfect opportunity for Xstrata (for example) to secure their resource base for the next 50 years...and at bargain prices...exciting times ahead!!!
Best of luck to all KWG and DDI longs
LP