Re: Doesn't anybody contribute to this site?
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 16, 2011 11:33PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
Hey RJ,
I mirror your statements about this site and appreciate your reference to some of my posts, even though I think that my opinions and speculation don't come close in value to the research and material info that many others have shared...yourself included...I won't try to name all of them for fear of leaving some out...suffice to say, that I have benefitted greatly from reading this blog as well as many of the links that were provided by the posters...and I have never had to put anybody on ignore...imagine that!!!
Anyway, I talked to Bruce (KWG IR for new readers) on Friday and he told me that they expect the first level of 3P review to be completed sometime in Sept. which represents the first level of approval. They have firm expectations that this project will receive full approval when all is said and done. He also mentionned that he thinks that the duality between Cliffs and KWG will eventually boil down to the RR vs the development of the BD...
Let's face the facts...Cliffs needs the RR and KWG wants 30% of BD. Cliffs is how many hundreds of million dollars in the hole if they don't have a way of shipping the ore ???Does this mean that Cliffs eventually takes KWG as a 30% partner? or that the negotiations will lead to financial concessions in a friendly take-over bid?. ..we don't know. All we do know is that KWG is very active and strategic in their initiatives, and Cliffs is hardly doing anything....right that is. They have done a few blunders, but we don't need to discuss those.
IMHO Cliffs has come to the humble realization that they are totally dependant on this small exploration company for the transport and that they may have bitten off, more than they can chew... that a big fish amy be coming to take them out of this game, because the "fooled around with the puck too long". They should have taken the shot when they had the opportunity, but they chose to hold out for pennies in an effort to outmanoeuver KWG in a petty ego match.
Who knows if Cliffs ever intended to develop the site...maybe they just saw an opportunity to acquire all three partners and flip a very valuable property to make a couple of billion along the way...right now they don't come across as a company that is trying to develop shareholder value in the ROF.
Here are a few points to ponder... if Cliffs is taken out by a bigger fish:
1. do they inherit the insider status by virtue of the 10%+ ownership of KWG shares and does that prevent them from making a hostile take-over...in other words would they have to obtain a valuation of KWG;
2. if Cliffs is approached with a take-over offer, they undoubtedly would fight for as great a value as possible and by doing so, increase the established value of the BD and by direct consequence, also increase the SP of KWG;
3. would that big fish also buy CCC and all its land claims, in order to eliminate the risk associated with the control of transport of the ore;
4. if 3P approval is delayed until after April 1st, would the PEA become the document of reference for the value of KWG and its 30% share of BD; by that time, two of the three major conditions would be in place (RR by KWG and Mine/processor by Cliffs) only a smelter location would need to be confirmed. Let's remember that the PEA put the value of KWG in the range of $2.95 to $4.78 per share, if all conditions were fulfilled and the mine was put into operation.
5. and finally...faced with a take-over bid from an outsider, would KWG and Cliffs lower their swords to present a united front, so as to maximize the return and the perceived value of BD; let's all remember that Cliffs has done nothing to increase the indicted or the inferred tonnage during this year of operatorship...will that in itself come back to haunt them? In a weird twist of fate, the PEA would then become a valuable tool for them.
IMHO Cliffs has already told KWG that they are coming, but not before a firm indication that 3P will go through and that KWG will go ahead with the RR...
Conversely, and again IMHO, it is my impression that KWG has made it clear in no uncertain terms, that BD must be developped first, or the RR development might be Halted? delayed? Why would they spend all those $$$ on the RR, if they don't receive their ROI on BD as the first developped mine...what would be the point.
For that reason, KWG holds the trump card, in terms of a possible take-over by Cliffs but...will they have the same bargaining position if a bigger fish takes out Cliffs...IMO yes they would only because there is only one cost-effective route in and out of that region...oh yeh, and it's the only option supported by the government.
Next chapter...how many and what grade of diamonds is our friend Chris (newly appointed director of Debut Diamonds) going to go and find for us in the Victor mine area and/or the Nakina area and what will Debeers pay for the take-over of DDI...more exciting news releases to follow, I am sure...
Best of luck to all KWG longs
LP